YUP - awal bulan ini BI-Rate masih naek2 krn : * Masih ada second-round (inflatoar) effect krn OIL * Level OIL masih tinggi (waktu itu) * Level inflasi scr nilai nominal masih tinggi - meskipun cenderung menurun2 (scr relatif) Happy Chuan, Aria From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Hanif Mantiq Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 6:16 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re:Indonesia DEFLASI 3.07% *sedikit nimbrung masalah BI rate, kalo dari modal googling di internet sepertinya keputusan BI menaikan rate sudah tepat, kita harus melihat secara keseluruhan bukan hanya kondisi sesaat saja, CMIIW, berikut saya lampirkan analisa tentang BI rate dan Rupiah US$*
------------------------------------------------- Indonesian rupiah - moving above 8700-9500 range Since 2006, Bank Indonesia (BI) has successfully kept USD/IDR stable in a broad range between 8700 and 9500. We think that this is about to change. Despite oil prices surging to USD98/barrel from USD61 in 2007, depreciation pressures on the rupiah were offset by a number of factors. To a great extent,the central bank's ability to maintain a stable rupiah could be attributed to the reflationary environment that followed the aggressive fuel price hikes in Oct 2005. As inflation eased from a high of 18.4% YoY in Nov 2005 to a stable range between 5.3% and 7.0% from Oct 2006 to Dec 2007, the central bank lowered interest rates from 12.75% to 8.00%. During these two years, the Jakarta stock market delivered annual gains of more than 50%, correctly betting on economic growth to return to pre-crisis levels above 6%. Meanwhile, foreign reserves started to accummulate at a faster rate from 2006, and overtook private sector external debt in 2007. The merchandise trade surplus was strong at almost USD40bn in 2006 and 2007, well above the average USD26bn posted in the previous eight years. This helped to assuag concerns about Indonesia's net oil importer status. Of course, it did not hurt that the USD was weak internationally from the aggressive rate cuts during the US mortgage/credit crisis that started in Jul 2007. Unfortunately, this did not last. The positive factors responsible for rupiah stability in the past couple of years started to deteriorate in 2008. As at Jun 2, the stock market has fallen by 12% since the start of the year, in line with waning consumer confidence. Oil prices have become a problem as they extended their ascent to as high as USD133/barrel on May 21. Apart from lifting inflation to double-digit levels by May08, high oil prices started to strain fiscal finances as well as to narrow the trade surplus. BI brought forward its policy meeting by two-days to May 6 and lifted the reference rate by 25bps hike to 8.25%. To alleviate the pressures on fiscal finances from record high oil prices, the government raised fuel prices by 28.7% on May 24, leaving the door open for more hikes and fuel subsidy cuts should the oil prices continue to climb unabated. Under the circumstances, the rupiah will be vulnerable if the US embarks on a rate hike cycle, like in 1999-00 and 2004-06. Starting from 4Q08 into 3Q09, DBS expects the Fed to raise interest rates from 2.00% to 4.25%. Hence, it will become more challenging for BI to keep USD/IDR within its 8700-9500 range. Taking into account that rupiah depreciation has become more muted with each cycle, we reckon that the upside for USD/IDR will be limited to 9800-10000 by mid-2009 before coming down again. USD/IDR forecast, eop Latest Prev Close 9310 9160 2Q08 9300 9300 3Q08 9500 9000 4Q08 9600 8700 1Q09 9700 9000 2Q09 9800 9000 3Q09 9500 8980 4Q09 9300 8980 BI benchmark rate forecast, eop Latest Prev Close 8.50 8.00 2Q08 8.75 8.00 3Q08 9.25 8.00 4Q08 9.25 8.00 1Q09 9.25 8.00 2Q09 9.25 8.00 3Q09 9.25 8.00 4Q09 9.25 8.00 ---------------------------------------------------- Indonesia DEFLASI 3.07% Posted by: "jos_martino" [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:jos_martino%40yahoo.com> jos_martino Fri Aug 8, 2008 8:33 am (PDT) Justru itu, bung Andi. Saya binun sama PaK Budiono udah tahu DEFLASI koq malah NAIKIN rate ini akan menghambat sektor riil. Sedangkan FED aja kemarin tidak menaikkan rate karena tahu akan DEFLASI. Coba deh bayangin perusahaan CPO saat ini. Udah TBS cuma dihargain Rp 1000/kg tetapi PUPUK mahal. Mau Ekspor, harga CPO kita mahal karena Rp. menguat ditambah lagi ada Pajak Ekspor. Mau Kredit, bunganya TINGGI. Koq bisa-bisanya rate malah diNAIKKIN... ... --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Andi Wahyudi <andi_wahyudi2000@ ...> wrote: > > Pak, benernya kl mau BI bisa bikin IDR jadi 8800 ke USD tahun 2007 lalu tapi ditahan sama BI jadi IDR tidak menguat terlalu banyak > > Saya percaya BI juga akan menjalankan mekanisme ini untuk menahan penguatan IDR, apalagi USD skrg juga menguat coz The Fed naikin suku bunga >
