US Dollar: Is the Rally Over?
After rallying for the past 2 weeks, the US dollar saw its strongest correction
against the Euro in almost a month. Producer prices were hotter than expected
as the annualized pace of growth hit a 17 year high. With import prices surging
to a record high in the month of July, it was not surprising to see producer
prices follow suit. Don’t forget that July was also the month that oil prices
hit a record high, which may be part of the reason why the rally in the dollar
post PPI was short-lived. The housing market numbers also failed to help the
greenback as housing starts and building permits both declined last month.
However what really killed the dollar was the rally in oil prices and the
sell-off in US stocks. On an intraday basis, crude prices rose to a high of
$116.65 a barrel. As for stocks, there continues to be concerns about the
banking sector from problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the rumors that
Lehman Brothers needs to raise capital
by selling a part of their high valued investment management business. This
leads to the question of whether the rally in the US dollar is over and in all
likelihood, no. The dollar has gained a lot of ground in a very short period of
time which means that further gains will come at a much slower pace and a
correction is expected, which is what we are seeing now.
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