DJ Indonesia Coal Export Cap Would Up Prices;Hurt Japan Elec Cos TOKYO (Dow Jones)--If Indonesia moves to limit next year's exports of thermal coal, it would have a further negative impact on Japanese utilities' earnings by boosting thermal coal prices, coal traders and analysts said.
The Nikkei reported in its Thursday morning edition that the Indonesian government said it will allow the export of 165 million metric tons of thermal coal in 2009, just 3% more than this year's projected export volume. Traders and analysts say they aren't sure that Indonesia really intends to enforce the limit, because the country needs the income it gets from sales of resources. But if the cap is put in place, coal prices in the Asia Pacific market would rise, they said. Power utilities across Asia "have increased imports (of thermal coal) from Indonesia, as demand has been surging and Australia has failed to catch up with all the increase in demand," said a trader with a major Japanese power utility. "Japan's coal demand growth won't be large. But China and India are importing more. Our pie will inevitably become smaller," he said. Coal importers in Asia have been facing major challenges as large exporters like China and Vietnam have been cutting supplies to the regional market to meet growing local demand. As a result, coal prices have been skyrocketing amid supply shortages. Roughly 20% of Japan's thermal coal imports come from Indonesia, while around 60% are from Australia, according to the Ministry of Finance. "You can probably find necessary volumes in the market. But prices would be high," said Tomohiro Jikihara, an analyst with Deutsche Securities Japan. Currently, Chubu Electric Power Co. (9502.TO) and Swiss mining firm Xstrata Plc (XTA.LN) are in talks on prices for term supply of Australian thermal coal for the year starting around October, according to analysts and traders. "If the Indonesian cap news is true, Xstrata's position would become stronger in the negotiations," said Shunichi Yamamoto, chief editor of Tokyo-based industry paper Coal and Power report. Chubu Electric's term price for Australian coal is widely used as benchmark in Japan. The company is the second-largest single user of thermal coal in the country, consuming roughly 10 million tons a year. In April, Chubu Electric agreed with Xstrata to pay around $125 a ton for term supply of Australian thermal coal for the fiscal year starting in April. The price was more than double the $55 a ton it paid last fiscal year, and that affected prices between other coal miners and Japanese utilities. As all fossil fuel prices have been skyrocketing, many of the 10 Japanese regional power utilities have already said separately earlier this month that they expect group net losses for this fiscal year. ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
