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From: hs [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: 02 September 2008 11:20 To: saham Subject: [saham] Fw: [bei-investorclub-jkt] Fw: Indosat (ISAT IJ, Rp6,350 BUY) Strong growth at the low-end --- On Tue, 9/2/08, hardjoeno <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: From: hardjoeno <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] Fw: Indosat (ISAT IJ, Rp6,350 BUY) Strong growth at the low-end To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Tuesday, September 2, 2008, 10:52 AM ----- Original Message ----- From: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Yoice Rumenta To: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> hardjoeno Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 9:52 AM Subject: FW: Indosat (ISAT IJ, Rp6,350 BUY) Strong growth at the low-end Yoice Rumenta PT. Danareksa Sekuritas JL. Medan Merdeka Selatan no.14 Jakarta 10110 Phone: 021-3509777 021-3509888 ext 2835 Fax : 021-3501554 Mobile: 08129598071 email: yoicer <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> @danareksa.com _____ From: Danareksa Equity Research Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 9:43 AM Subject: Indosat (ISAT IJ, Rp6,350 BUY) Strong growth at the low-end Indosat Strong growth at the low-end Strong net additions Indosat has done a remarkable job in attaining new subscribers. During 2Q08, Indosat recorded net additions of nearly 6.0mn - a record number for a quarterly period - boosting its subscribers' base to 32.4mn as of June 08. However, cellular revenues only inched up by 5.1% qoq to Rp3.4tr in 2Q08, or well below the rate of growth in net additions. We believe this is attributable to two factors: 1) the fact that the impact on revenues will only be fully reflected in 3Q08 and 2) the net additions are customers who provide relatively low ARPU to the company. But relatively weak results on a quarterly basis Despite the strong subscribers' growth, Indosat's 1H08 financial results were slightly disappointing. Although the revenues were in line with our expectations, the increase in the service costs was higher than expected, thus resulting in a lower than expected EBITDA margin. Furthermore, the stiffer competition in the industry led to higher advertising costs which, in turn, squeezed margins. Company guidance Given the aggressive marketing campaigns undertaken by its competitors, Indosat's management has revised its year end target to make it more realistic. Thus, revenues growth is now expected to reach 13-15% in FY08 (vs. an earlier forecast of 18%), the EBITDA margin is forecast to reach between 48-52% (vs 52-54%), and the ARPU is expected to decline 20-25% (vs 15-20%). Nonetheless, the management has raised its additional subscribers' target to 12mn from only 8mn earlier. In a bid to provide quality services amidst strong subscribers' growth, capex is expected to increase to US$1.4bn from US$1.2bn previously. Our changes Given that the competition is likely to remain stiff in 2H08 and in light of the 1H08 results, we have reduced our forecast numbers. Thus, our revenues forecast is upped slightly due to the better-than-expected subscribers and internet growth, although, at the same time, we have also raised our estimate for the service costs, which culminates in lower EBITDA margins. We downgrade our EPS estimates for FY08 and FY09 by 11.8% and 18.8%, respectively. Still a BUY As a result of these changes, we lower our target price to Rp6,950. This represents potential upside of 13% from the current share price. Meanwhile, it should also be noted that QTEL is required to hold a tender offer following its recent acquisition of a 40.8% stake in ISAT. However, the government has not yet decided the amount for the tender offer. Nonetheless, we suggest that investors participate in the tender offer as the tender offer price is very attractive at around Rp7,400 per share, or above the fair value of the shares. Chandra S Pasaribu (62-21) 3509888 ext. 3520 [EMAIL PROTECTED] *************** CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. If you have received this electronic transmission in error, please immediately contact the sender to arrange for the return of the original documents.
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