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 Fed Rate Must Not Be Low for Too Long: Lacker
 Topics:U.S. Dollar <http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/108448/sh/3>
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 Reuters | 03 Nov 2008 | 06:36 AM ET
Text Size <http://www.cnbc.com/id/27511938#><http://www.cnbc.com/id/27511938#>

The Federal Reserve must not forget about inflation as it battles recession,
or leave interest rates too low for too long next year, policy-maker Jeffrey
Lacker said on Monday.

"It is crucial that we not allow expectations of future inflation to ratchet
higher during this recession," the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
President said in prepared remarks.

   CNBC.com
 ------------------------------

A copy of Lacker's speech at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem was released
to the media prior to delivery.

"As a recovery begins, the path of least resistance is often to hold the
policy rate at a low level until it is completely clear that recuperation is
complete.

"The risk associated with that path is that inflation may not moderate
obediently during the downturn, and may firm with the ensuing recovery," he
said.

Lacker, who will be a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting
committee next year, has earned a reputation as one of the U.S. central
bank's most hawkish policy-makers with a track record for warning on
inflation.

Indeed, his comments differed in tone to the Fed's last policy statement on
Oct. 29, when it lowered interest rates by half a percentage point to 1.00
percent. In the statement, it stressed downside risks to growth remained and
tamed its warnings on inflation.

The U.S. central bank has slashed rates by 4.25 percentage points since
September 2007 to try to cushion the economy from a global credit crisis
sparked by the deepest decline in the U.S. housing market since the Great
Depression. Investors bet that it will ease rates again at its next meeting
on Dec. 16.

*Uneasy*

But Lacker's remarks made plain that he was uneasy about another prolonged
period of very low interest rates.

Some critics argue the Fed's policy of keeping rates at 1 percent between
mid-2003 and mid-2004 was partly responsible for fueling the housing boom
and subsequent bust.

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 Lacker made a specific reference to this view in his speech and said he
found it plausible; a clear hint that he may use his vote to push for rate
hikes as growth picks back up. Lacker also spelled out two factors favouring
an economic rebound sometime next year, and said this was a "reasonable
expection."

"First, monetary policy is now quite stimulative. The federal funds target
rate is 1 percent, below the expected rate of inflation. "Second, the major
shocks that dampened economic activity this past year have already subsided
or are in the process of doing so," he said.

He acknowledged that lower oil prices would help to bring down headline U.S.
inflation in the coming months.

The overall consumer price index has already moderated to a year-on-year
change in September of 4.9 percent from a peak of 5.6 percent in July, as
the cost of oil halved to less than $70 a barrel.

But Lacker warned this would not automatically translate into a lower core
rate of inflation, referring to the inflation measure watched most closely
by policy-makers that strips out volatile food and energy prices.

"While the downturn in real economic activity is going to pose challenges
for monetary policy in the period ahead, it's essential that we not let
inflation drift from view," he said.

Lacker also said the U.S. economy was definitely in a recession but he
believed it would be fairly moderate in size.

"We are in a contraction. Up until the summer it was a fairly mild
recession," Lacker told reporters after a speech at the Hebrew University of
Jerusalem.

"I think it's definitely a recession at this point. How deep, how steep, and
long it's going to be is uncertain. We don't know if it's going to be a
garden variety recession or something steeper. I think it's most likely to
be of a fairly moderate size," he said.
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Pada tanggal 04/11/08, Andry Pratikno <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
>
>    klo ambil contoh di US, klo US cut rate, saham dowjonesnya positif.
> seharusnya klo BI cut rate, ihsg seharusnya naik.
> kebetulan saya broker di valbury, jd agak tahu soal fundamental.
> itu td membahas efek seharusnya. ga tahu lg klo masyarakat/trader
> meresponsnya lain.
> thanks
>
>
>  ------------------------------
> *From:* priareiki <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> *To:* [email protected]
> *Sent:* Tuesday, November 4, 2008 12:31:51 AM
> *Subject:* [saham] Re: Saatnya BI rate turun
>
>  BI rate turun ada dilemmanya , USD bisa menguat thd IDR, USD menguat
> saham jg turun . jadi bingung memang kalau BI rate turun pengaruhnya
> bagus apa tdk terhadap ihsg
>
> --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED] com <saham%40yahoogroups.com>, "jkunci" <[EMAIL 
> PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > Komoditas udah turun
> > FED udah turun
> > inflasi udah turun
> > BBM ntar turun
> > BI rate turun dong...
> >
> > Para jagoan udah turun untuk memberi kesempatan jagoan baru IHSG
> > naik...cihuuuuiiii
> >
> > salam,
> > jkunci
> >
>
>
> 
>

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