Currency Risk: A Volatile Rupiah The rupiah has depreciated by 18.9% against US dollar (USD) between 1 September 2008 and 7 November 2008 on massive capital outflow from the country as a result of risk aversion. Fear over a global downturn and thin sentiments have outweighed sound fundamentals, causing investors to pull out from emerging markets. Despite the central bank's attempt to arrest the depreciation of the rupiah by intervening in the foreign exchange market, the rupiah continued to slide.
Moving forward, the direction of the rupiah will very much depend on sentiments. So long as concerns over sustainability of earnings amid a global downturn continue to cloud the capital market, the rupiah is likely to remain volatile. Furthermore, potential rate cuts in the coming year may cause the rupiah to further decline, given that sentiments remain negative. Earnings and Valuations The estimated price-earning (PE) ratio for the JCI is 11.2X and 9.5X for 2008 and 2009 respectively (as at 7 November 2008). Despite uncertainties in the global economy, the JCI's estimated earnings growth for 2008 is strong at 17.4% (refer Table 2). In 2009, earnings growth is expected to remain strong at 18%, steered by robust domestic demand and a lower level of inflation. We believe that the PE ratio of 11.2X is currently at attractive levels and is nearing the 5-year average PE levels of 10.3X. At one point of time, Indonesia was trading at a PE of 19X in 2007, this goes to show that the market has gone down to levels that we find sufficiently attractive. Conclusion The Indonesia equity market will most likely remain volatile in the months to come as uncertainties over the severity of the global financial crisis loom over investors' sentiments. But do take note that this creates great buying opportunities, a rare one where investors get to purchase stocks at low prices unseen in years. Speculating market bottoms and swaying according to sentiments add little value to your investments. One important note to keep in mind is that Indonesia is blessed with fundamentals that will help to weather external factors relatively better than most South East Asian economies do. As long as these fundamentals are in place to churn the economy, prices will eventually correct over time and hence a recovery in the market. The irrational selling and sharp decline in the JCI in October despite its positive outlook suggest that Indonesia is now at an attractive level and deserves an upgrade from 3 to 3.5 stars. We recommend Indonesia as an investment in the supplementary portion of your core and supplementary portfolio, where single country and sector based funds are usually included. -- Get latest Canadian immigration rules for professionals and investor opportunities. Everyday 9:00-17:00 Visi IndoCanada 021-830 6715, 0852 3008 3510 or mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
