st1\:* {
BEHAVIOR: url(#default#ieooui)
}
@font-face {
font-family: Tahoma;
}
@font-face {
font-family: Calibri;
}
@page Section1 {size: 8.5in 11.0in; margin: 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; }
H1 {
mso-style-priority: 9
}
A:link {
mso-style-priority: 99
}
SPAN.MSOHYPERLINK {
mso-style-priority: 99
}
A:visited {
mso-style-priority: 99
}
SPAN.MSOHYPERLINKFOLLOWED {
mso-style-priority: 99
}
P {
mso-style-priority: 99
}
SPAN.HEADING1CHAR {
mso-style-priority: 9
}
P.MsoNormal {
FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"
}
LI.MsoNormal {
FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"
}
DIV.MsoNormal {
FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"
}
H1 {
FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 24pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT:
0in; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto
}
A:link {
COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION: underline
}
SPAN.MsoHyperlink {
COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION: underline
}
A:visited {
COLOR: purple; TEXT-DECORATION: underline
}
SPAN.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {
COLOR: purple; TEXT-DECORATION: underline
}
P {
FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0in; FONT-FAMILY:
"Times New Roman"; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto
}
SPAN.heading1char {
FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #365f91; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"
}
SPAN.EmailStyle19 {
COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri; mso-style-type: personal
}
SPAN.EmailStyle20 {
FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: navy; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY:
Tahoma; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-style-type: personal
}
SPAN.EmailStyle22 {
COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-style-type: personal-reply
}
DIV.Section1 {
page: Section1
}
Subject: FW: PGAS -- false
alarm?
PGAS hit limit down for third consecutive days this
morning, before closing the first session flat from yesterday close. CFO Mr.
Hendi Priosantoso held a conference call at 11:30am, which could have explained
the 10% share price recovery by mid day. Overall the call yielded comforting
outcome, accumulate below Rp1,800. Key take-aways:
1.
No plan to cut gas distribution selling price.
But Mr. Hendi also made it clear that the market should
not expect any price increase either in 2009 (vs. Macquarie assumption of a 10%
hike in 4Q09), as communicated to the house of representative. He
said:
“No plan to modify selling price in
2009, as the policy is driven by long term supply contract with fixed price
arrangement.”
“None of our customers have
switched to diesel thus far”
“Have not seen any specific program or request for PGAS
to lower gas price from Indonesia’s chamber of commerce
(Kadin), nor any calculation that suggest the need to lower gas
price”
“On management calculation, a US$25/bbl crude would be
equal to US$8.60/mmbtu gas price (vs. current selling price of US$5.50/mmbtu).
Based on a current unsubsidized diesel price of Rp6,300/liter, the equivalent
gas price should be around US$15.80/mmbtu”.
2. No pressure to change US$ pricing
policy.
“The current management has never pegged or received
payment in IDR, and all customers have stand-by LCs for all sales
contracts”.
“Non performing receivable is less than
1%”.
3. Arbitration dispute with Siemens Pte Ltd is quite
small, amounting to less than US$4.0mn.
“We regret to have ommitted the size of the arbitration
claim when we submit the disclosure to Bapepam”.
4. Happy with the distribution volume
development.
“Average throughput is 585 mmscfd by end November. Still
targetting 580-600 mmscfd for FY08. Giving a wide ranged guidance of
700-800mmscfd for FY09, around 730mmscfd of which is contracted but subject to
execution success”.
“Signs of economic slowdown, as some customers have
asked for a lowering of contractual volume (less than 5% overall). But any
hiccups have been offset by a surging demand from the power
sector”.
My take: Adam
Worthington/Albert Saputro’s assumptions on PGAS, which factored-in a 10% hike
in 4Q09, look a tad optimistic. Attached is a spreadsheet that outlines EPS and
DCF outcome with & without gas price increase assumption. Base case DCF is
Rp3,100, with worst case DCF of Rp2,000 without gas price increase assumption.
NOTICE
The
information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the
intended
recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this email in any
way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return email
and
delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or
attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any
other
person.
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked
by AVG - http://www.avg.com
Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861
- Release Date: 12/22/2008 11:23 AM
___________________________________________________________________________
Dapatkan alamat Email baru Anda!
Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan sebelum diambil orang lain!
http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/
