T H E B R O Y H I L L L E T T E R SECOND QUARTER 2010 Executive Summary While most investors today probably understand that Europe isn't exactly a poster-child for prudent government spending or budget planning, we're not sure that the consensus is bearish enough on the spillover effects from a prolonged European Debt Defl ation. Exports are still the foundation of the China story, but with their largest customers still lying in intensive care, we doubt appetites for cheap Chinese goods will be quite the same. At the same time, strategists today are still debating whether or not the massive, credit-induced spike in Chinese real estate prices is in fact, a bubble. We'll let investors answer that one for themselves, but consider that the ratio of residential real estate to GDP in China looks a lot like California in 2006, while levels in Beijing and Shanghai match the Japanese peak in 1990. Market participants around the world have obsessed over every blip in Chinese economic data for the better part of the last decade; and rightly so, as China has been a rare source of strength in a fragile global economy. This year, the Shanghai Composite is among the world's worst performing equity markets, as the government's visible hand has taken measures to curb speculation, dampen money growth, slow loan growth, and launch an aggressive attack on housing prices. Leading indicators of Chinese growth have responded accordingly, and have been slowing along with the stock market since last fall. We view this speed bump in the high-growth China story as an important leading indicator for global markets and explore one such consequence Down Under, in this letter.
CLICK TO DOWNLOAD! <http://stashbox.org/970240/Broyhill%20Letter%20%28Q2-10%29.pdf> Link:http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market\ -Outlooks!&p=4786#post4786 <http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market-Out\ looks%21&p=4786#post4786> China: Implications of rising wages (Part II) China: Implications of rising wages(Part II) DBS Group Research 4 August 2010 CLICK TO DOWNLOAD! <http://stashbox.org/969574/cn_100804.pdf> Link: http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market-Outl\ ooks!&p=4778#post4778 <http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market-Out\ looks%21&p=4778#post4778> ABERDEEN ASIA ASSET MANAGEMENT For more information Client Services Tel: +65 6395 2701 Fax: +65 6438 0743 Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited 21 Church Street #01-01 Capital Square Two Singapore 049480 Tel: +65 6395 2700 Fax: +65 6535 7159 www.aberdeen-asia.com <http://www.aberdeen-asia.com/> Aberdeen Weekly Commentary: Emerging Markets Weekly (2 August 2010) CLICK TO DOWNLOAD! <http://stashbox.org/969572/Aberdeen%20-%20EM%20SG%202Aug10.pdf> Link: http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market-Outl\ ooks!&p=4777#post4777 <http://www.financeindonesia.org/showthread.php?201-Fundhouse-Market-Out\ looks%21&p=4777#post4777>
