speculative buy INDF. Fut Wheat turun lagi 4,7% tadi malam menggenapi 12% penurunan dlm 2 hari terakhir. Meski berdasarkan nearby very short term cycle dg time span 18 INDF dlm posisi menurun, akan tetapi nearby momentum resistance di 4275 bukan sesuatu yg jauh utk dilewati dan membatalkan sementara downtrend jangka pendek. Dari aspek fundamental, INDF via bogasari sbg pemain pasar terigu yg mumpuni tentu tdk begitu saja mendasarkan permintaan atas dasar fluktuasi kontrak spot. Sepertinya periode kontrak berlangsung dg Australia jatuh tempo pada bulan Oktober untuk final delivery di Januari. Dengan demikian tidak sepatutnya ada dampak seketika dari on spot fluctuation harga terigu. Posisi yang sama diambil misalnya oleh sovereign spt Mesir. Terlebih lagi ada forecast jika akan terjadi excessive wheat production di AS untuk sesi panen berikutnya. Spt biasa, manusia cenderung follow the crowd. Justifikasi berita di bawah. bloomberg: Wheat futures fell the most since mid-2009 on speculation that farmers will boost acreage next year after prices surged to a 23-month high following Russia’s ban on grain exports. comtex: Wheat plunged after Thursday's panic on the Russia's decision to ban. Egypt may have calmed the market, announcing its needs are covered for the rest of the year while Brazil and Argentina pointed to an improved supply in that region. Traders meanwhile tried to switch contracts from Russia and Ukraine, with the United States expected to be the beneficiary.
