Ha ? EXCL akan naik ke 7200 ?? keren banget ... harga ini akan tercapai kapan ya kira-kira, boss ??
sekarang masih aman buat beli EXCL ? di 5300 ? Semoga cuan.... Amin --- Pada Rab, 6/10/10, Joe Grunk <[email protected]> menulis: Dari: Joe Grunk <[email protected]> Judul: [saham] FW: [Macquarie Research] XL Axiata - Upgrade to target price to Rp7,200 Kepada: [email protected], [email protected] Tanggal: Rabu, 6 Oktober, 2010, 2:29 PM XL Axiata Margins set to beat expectations Event § Following a review of our estimates and discussions with management, we are upgrading our EXCL target price to Rp7,200 (from Rp5,700), increasing FY10E-FY12E EPS by 4-7% due to higher margin estimates given EXCL’s profitability should be maintained in 3Q driven by easing competition whilst EBITDA margins should trend close to 50% long term. We have also lowered the risk free rate to 9% from 10%. We re-iterate our Outperform call and highlight EXCL as our top pick in the sector. Impact § Rational competition supporting better margins. We expect EXCL will maintain margins achieved in 1H10 for the full year, increasing our FY10 estimate to 51.6% driven by competition remaining rational. This is further supported by our view that Indosat (ISAT IJ, Neutral, Rp5,500, TP: Rp4,700) has shifted its focus to a more sustained recovery. § Risk free rate lowered to 9%. We have lowered the risk free rate assumption to 9% from 10% following the continued risk compression within the Indonesian market driven by political stability and structural reform. We have also rolled forward to valuation to FY11. § EXCL has secured another 5MHz of 3G spectrum. XL has received approval from the Minister of Communication and Information for a second 3G carrier of 5MHz, adjacent to its existing 3G spectrum, bringing XL's total 3G spectrum allocation to 10MHz, in line with 3G allocations for Telkomsel (unrated) and Indosat. Earnings and target price revision § We are increasing FY10E-FY12E EPS by 4-7% due to higher margins, and we are increasing our target price by 26% to Rp7,200 (from Rp5,700) and have rolled forward our valuation to end of FY11. Price catalyst § 12-month price target: Rp7,200 based on a DCF methodology. § Catalyst: 3Q results in October. Action and recommendation § EXCL remains our top pick in the sector. EXCL is currently trading at 11.2x FY11 PER, which represents a 24% discount to the Indonesian Telecom sector, a 20% discount to the market and regional peers, despite EXCL providing an above market 3 year EPS CAGR of 58%. Our target multiple of 15.5x FY11 PER is in line with our target multiple for PT Telkom (TLKM IJ, Rp9,550, Outperform, TP: Rp10,100) of 15x. § Our FY10 EPS estimate remains 15% above consensus, driven both by higher revenue and margin assumptions and we therefore continue to expect another leg of consensus upgrades will follow the 3Q results. This e-mail is confidential and intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above and may contain information that is priviledged. If you are not the intended recipient, you are notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. You may from time to time be provided with investment and financial related information and reports, including but not limited to, research reports and market or securities specific analysis. Please note that the information is provided to you for information only. All of the information report and analysis made should be taken as having been prepared for the purpose of general circulation and without regard to any specific investment objective, financial situation or the needs of any particular person who may receive the information, report or analysis (including yourself). Any recommendation or advice that may be expressed in or inferred from such information, reports or analysis therefore does not take into account and may not be suitable for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs
