• Port congestion eased, with the number of Capesize vessels at
anchorage down 7% w/w to 136 or 12% of the global existing Capesize
fleet (vs. c.14% a week ago and c.20% early this year). Around 5% of the
global dry bulk shipping fleets are at anchorage (vs. c.10% early this
year). The average number of days of delay was flat w/w at 2.2 days for
Pacific ports but fell 27% w/w to 1.9 days for Atlantic ports (source:
Global Ports).
The BDI fell 1% w/w as freight rates in the smaller vessel segments
declined further, which more than offset the marginal increase in
Capesize rates during the week. Average daily earnings for Capesize
vessels rose another 4% w/w to c.$41.2K/day, 25% above their 20-year
historical average. Panamax earnings fell 2% w/w to c.$14.5K/day, 11%
below their 20-year historical average. Rates for the Supramax and
Handysize vessels also declined, with indices down 4% each. Six period
Capesize fixtures were concluded during the week (of which two were
by STX Pan Ocean) at $34.1K/day on average for a chartering period of
4-6 months predominantly vs. five (as one more fixture was added) done
at $33.2K/day on average in the previous week (source: Clarksons).
• China demand drove 91% of the ship chartering activity in the spot
market: 22 Capesize vessels were chartered in the spot market during
the week, declining 5% w/w (as one more charter was added last week)
and 37% y/y (worse than the previous week's 15% y/y decline); 91%
carrying iron ore (from 77%) and only 5% coal (unchanged vs. last
week), the remaining 4% unknown (from 18%). 91% are scheduled to
ship these cargoes to China (from 59%), 5% to Europe (from 14%), 5%
to Middle East and none to Far East (from 27%). Only 1 ship was
chartered to carry coal in the spot market (same as last week) - from
Australia to Europe. According to JPM China Metals & Mining team,
coal inventory levels at Qinhuangdao surged 9% w/w to 6.925mt and
coal prices rose 3% w/w; whereas iron ore inventory levels at the major
Chinese ports remained unchanged at 7.385mt. Meanwhile, China's steel
inventory levels fell 2% w/w to 14.84mt during the week.
• Brazil-China shipping demand surged: From only 5% in the previous
week, Brazil-China's share of the Capesize ships chartered rose to a high
of 55%, all carrying iron ore, with rates rising 13% w/w to c.$31.5/ton on
average (from $28.0/ton). Half of these ships were chartered by Vale. In
contrast, Aus-China's share of shipping demand fell, accounting for 32%
of the ships chartered (from 45% in the previous week), all carrying iron
ore (same as last week), with average rates flat w/w at $12.0/ton.




------------------------------------

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