------Original Message------
From: MeLinda MeLisa
Sender: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
ReplyTo: [email protected]
Subject: [StockForex] JPMorgan&Chase: dollar will fall to 75 yen in 2011
Sent: Nov 19, 2010 2:49 PM

JPMorgan&Chase: dollar will fall to 75 yen in 2011


Analysts at JPMorgan & Chase Co. are sure that the Federal Reserve’s
monetary easing policy is making US dollar the world’s “weakest
currency”. The specialists expect that the greenback will fall to 75
yen in 2011. The lowest level of the pair USD/JPY was hit at 79.75 yen
in April 1995. The minimal rate since then was at 80.22 yen on
November 1.


US, Japanese and European central banks will keep rates next year at
the minimal levels in order to spur the growth of their economies,
while the Fed is likely to take additional easing steps following the
$600 billion bond-purchase program announced this month depending on
inflation and the labor market.

"JPMorgan strategists also reminded that the United States has the
world’s largest current-account deficit".

Even if the US prolongs easing it won’t increase inflationary
pressures as the balance sheets of banks and households are still
damaged by the global financial crisis.


According to JPMorgan, 10-year Treasury yields may drop from 2.89%
today to 2.25% over the next year and their premium over
similar-maturity Japanese yields won’t widen. Loose policy of the key
central banks flooding the market with extra liquidity will correspond
to 3% advance of the global economy in 2011 as it happened in
2004-2004 when stocks and commodities surged on improving risk
appetite and dollar lost 25% versus yen. The rebound of the world’s
economy encouraging risk sentiment will make investors reduce their
demand for Japanese currency that will decline against other
currencies beside the dollar to levels last seen in early 2007.


The analysts also believe that Japan’s monetary authorities won’t
intervene again at the currency market as it did on September 15 when
the national currency rose to 15-year maximum even if yen appreciates
versus US dollar due to the international criticism of
foreign-exchange intervention.


SOURCE: http://marketpin.blogspot.com/


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