Bursa saham Cina, setelah Bank Sentral Cina menaikkan RRR (reserve requirement/GWM) Jumat malam lalu. Lessons learned - bottomline.
Bloomberg: Chinese banks and property developers dropped after the reserve requirement ratio for domestic banks was increased by 50 basis points. The increase came 10 days after boosting interest rates as Premier Wen Jiabao tackles accelerating inflation and the risk of asset bubbles in the fastest-growing major economy. China Construction Bank Corp<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=939:HK>., the nation’s second-biggest lender by market value, slipped 0.9 percent to HK$6.83. Smaller rival Bank of China Ltd. lost 0.5 percent to HK$4.11. Agile Property Holdings Ltd<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=3383:HK>., which builds villas and apartments in China’s southern city of Guangzhou<http://topics.bloomberg.com/guangzhou/>, decreased 1.3 percent to HK$10.52 in Hong Kong. Hang Lung Properties Ltd., the Hong Kong-based developer that gets 16 percent of sales from China, slipped 1.4 percent to HK$32.75. Apa gerangan yang akan terjadi 4 Maret minggu depan ketika dan jika Bank Indonesia menaikkan alternatif atau kumulatif GWM 25 basis poin dan BI rate sampai dengan 50 basis poin? "-Jika inflasi inti ditekan hingga 3,1%, maka kemungkinan BI rate bisa lebih dari 6,75%" kata Endy Dwi Tjahyono, Direktorat Riset Ekonomi & Kebijakan Moneter BI, Sabtu (19/2). Bahkan, Endy bilang, suku bunga nantinya akan naik lebih dari 50 basis poin, dan akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dibawah 6%.-" ( http://keuangan.kontan.co.id/v2/read/Keuangan/59376/Tekan-inflasi-inti-ke-31-suku-bunga-bisa-naik-di-atas-50-basis-poin ) "-Bank Indonesia is expected to raise interest rates in March by 25 basis points,” said Joanna Tan, a regional economist at Forecast Singapore Pte.-" ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-21/rupiah-baht-lead-gains-in-asian-currencies-as-inflation-pressure-builds.html ) Implikasi terhadap pilihan saham? Pada awal 2008 lalu ketika inflasi harga-harga konsumer di AS naik mencapai 4%, dan 1/3 kenaikan disumbang oleh 'headline inflation' (fuel & food), kurang lebih kondisi yang miripi-mirip Indonesia saat ini, Joe Fisher, manajer portofolio, pada Fifth Third Asset Management, menyarankan sektor investasi saham tertentu yang aman dan apa yang perlu dijauhi dalam situasi 'inflationary' seperti itu. "-He says the winning trend has remained the same for most of this decade: "Energy, raw materials and most industrial companies have had pricing power and haven't had to sacrifice revenue growth," Fisher said. Consolidated energy and coal are sure winners: they're driven by global demand; and coal, in particular, can raise prices even above the increases enacted by the railroad companies that transport it. Sectors to avoid? Fisher warns against financials and tech stocks.-" http://www.cnbc.com/id/24159632/Inflation_Fighters_Three_Stock_Picks Penyesuaian terhadap target harga ideal pada kisaran forward PBV 2,5 'peer' regional-nya akan mengembalikan 'attractiveness' IHSG BBCA: Rp3.575 BMRI: Rp4.200 BBRI: Rp3.525 BBNI: Rp2.900 BDMN: Rp5.050 '+'
