Dollar Higher Ahead Of US Payrolls Data 


http://marketcall.net/ - Friday, April 1, 2011 


LONDON -- Currency markets were poised for the release of the U.S. non-farm 
payrolls numbers Friday, with the dollar trading higher across the board after 
yet another Fed speaker hinted that the U.S. needs to move towards higher 
interest rates. 

Mineappolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota said late Thursday 
that the U.S. may need to increase key interest rates by 75 basis points by the 
end of 2011 if inflationary pressures continue to build in the economy. 

The dollar got a healthy boost from the comments and hit a post-earthquake high 
against the Japanese yen, at Y83.74, while it knocked the euro off near 
five-month highs late Thursday to trade below $1.42. 

The greenback was also in demand ahead of the release of U.S. employment 
figures, due at 1230 GMT with consensus expectations that the U.S. economy 
added 195,000 jobs in March. 

"We expect that the U.S. employment report to support investor risk appetite," 
said Lena Komileva, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in a note 
to clients. 

The dollar should also garner support from the plethora of Fed speakers Friday, 
stoking investors' hopes that monetary easing is nearing its end and the 
central bank will take steps to normalize monetary policy. 

"New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley is expected to speak at 1400 
GMT and market watchers expect to see some tough talk," said Citigroup in a 
note. 

"If Dudley displays any hawkish feathers, then it really is time to head for 
the hills," it added. "In other words, [while] the market's focus may be on the 
U.S. employment report, the day's main event in terms of market moving 
potential comes a little later." 

In European hours, the data calendar was fairly packed, but the slew of PMI 
releases went by quietly for the most part. But the pound was dented as the 
U.K. manufacturing PMI number disappointed investors, who promptly sold 
sterling, sending it to trade at the day's low of $1.6012 against the dollar. 
Market participants had expected a 60.5 reading, but the outcome of 57.1 sent 
investors heading for the door. 

"It may be that demand growth is starting to fade in response to the chunky 
price increases that manufacturers have pushed through in recent months," said 
Samuel Tombs, U.K. economist at Capital Economics in London. "That said, we are 
hesitant to conclude at this stage that the manufacturing recovery has entirely 
run out of steam." 

The euro was sluggish against the dollar, although it benefited from some 
month-end buying and the single currency was still well bid on the crosses. The 
euro was making hefty gains against both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, 
both of which fell out of favor for now as risk appetite improved. 

"Other than the yen, the currency "loser" as U.S. rates head higher is probably 
the Swiss franc," said Societe Generale in a note to clients. 

At 1030 GMT the euro was trading at CHF1.3058 against the franc compared to 
CHF1.3017 late Thursday, while it was at Y118.41 compared to Y117.92. The 
single currency was at $1.4152 against the greenback, compared to $1.4155 In 
New York Thursday. The dollar was at Y83.70 against Y83.15, while the pound was 
at $1.6048 against $1.6036. 

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted 
basket of currencies, was at about 76.117 from about 76.057. 

Looking ahead, New York should brace for a busy session: Philadelphia Fed 
President Charles Plosser speaks at 1215 GMT, U.S. non-farm payrolls at 1230 
GMT, U.S. New York Fed Pres Dudley and Dallas Fed Pres Fisher speak at 1300 
GMT, U.S. Mar ISM Manufacturing Report on Business at 1400 GMT. Also on the 
data calendar, U.S. Construction Spending at 1400 GMT and Global Manufacturing 
PMI 1500 GMT



      


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