We are seeing a solid negative price divergence on BUMI as early as March 30, 2011, and accordingly advise our clients to book their profit if any, and recalculate corresponding risk taken in 2-3 weeks ahead. Under such a divergence, we expect to see at least a short-term volatility pressure which will bring BUMI down up to 8-10%. In addition, for a longer period of holding, we still confidently affirm Goldman Sachs projection citing on January 11, 2011 to cut BUMI to "sell" from "neutral" with renewed target price as of March 17, 2011 at Rp2,300 further down from Rp2,500 in early January 2011.
On the other hand yet still under the same sector of Indonesian energy, we are seeing a stronger positive divergence on DOID since early March, and it is still pretty much in tact confirming a period of up pressure for months to come. We expect the up push will keep the volatility high and set at least 19% increase along with support from specific fundamental surprises in coming months/weeks. '+'
