Bro Gambler..ente masuk mana? :) Sent from my AXIS Worry Free BlackBerry® smartphone
-----Original Message----- From: positif01 <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2011 16:31:19 Reply-To: [email protected] Subject: [saham] Re: [junior_Trader] Probability or Prediction? This may help you. There are five traders in the universe. The first is Trader Novice whom you also always refer to as newbie. The second is Trader Average. You probably know him or someone like him. He has lots of fun in the market, making a few rupiahs in good times, and struggling in weak and nervous markets. The third is Trader Success. She trades full time and trading is her primary source of income. You know of these people by reputation. This is where you want to be. The fourth is Trader Superstar. There are not many traders who fit this category. They represent the pinnacle of trading achievement. We know them from their international best-selling books and interviews in specialist publication. We use their methods to help improve our trading success. The fifth is Trader Lucky. He is a mythical trader who buys at the very bottom and sell at the very top. He is the friend of a friend whose uncle knows the managing director. This financial media creation is an urban myth but we can use his performance as a benchmark. Which is yours? '+' On Thu, Apr 28, 2011 at 11:14 AM, Jimmy.junaidi <[email protected]>wrote: > > > If you are standing in the camp of probabilitty, > > Then why you use news or analysis from major investment bank? > > If you understand about probability, then it does not make any sense to use > news the way you use it, as a guide to your trading. > > Even if you use technical analysis, that does not necessarily mean you > understand probability. > Many technical analyst do not even understand, why they should use those > method. Some technical analyst don't even know what is their chance of > getting a winning trade. > > All of those above doesn't mean that fundamental analysis can't be used. > From the way you use news, I can be sure that you don't use any of those > method I mentioned above correctly. > > That's just my opinion. > > You use english, then maybe I should use english. It seems that you never > give an reply when I use indonesian. > Maybe you just don't speak indonesian. Then I will use English. :D > > > Cheers, > > > Jimmy Junaidi > > On 27/04/2011, at 7:41 PM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > When I trade the market I use chart analysis to understand crowd behavior. > I also use technical analysis tools to understand price behavior. Why do you > use charting and technical analysis? > Usually the answers fall into two distinct camps. One camp believes > these techniques provide a way to predict market moves and price activity. > The other camp believes the analysis establishes a probability framework. > These divisions are common amongst professionals and amateurs. They divide > traders and techniques. > When you consider applying charting and technical analysis, it is an > advantage to know which camp you belong to. When reading or listening to > analysts who use these techniques, it is very important to know what camp > they belong to. If the analysis is based on a probability framework and you > interpret it as a prediction then you may end up with an unpleasant and > costly results. > > *The Risk of Prediction* > We all bring with us to the financial markets a different understanding of > risk and a different solution to the problem of identifying and managing it. > This influences the way we select indicators and understand them. We talk in > general terms about market risk and this hides some important distinctions. > If we believe risk is the same as uncertainty then the obvious antidote to > risk is to reduce uncertainty. In the financial market this typically comes > in two separate packages. > The first package is neatly tied up in fundamental analysis. > Fundamental ratios, analysis and procedures provide a good starting point to > focus our attention on a specific group of stocks. Many people stop there, > believing they have the answer. Instead, they have just a beginning. > Fundamental analysis, in a broad sense, is useful for deciding what to > buy. It is not very useful for deciding when to buy. A common solution to > this problem is to buy quality stocks at bargain prices. We all like quality > and these buyers believe the quality of the stock will overcome market > retreats. They reason that good stocks always perform well, and even if they > do slip a little in price, their quality means they recover quickly. These > investors select quality stocks to lower risk by reducing uncertainty. > The second package contains an analysis system that generally involves > some form of prediction. > The objective is the same for both the investors using fundamentals > and the investors using charts and technical indicators. They aim to reduce > risk by knowing as much about the future as possible, or at least by knowing > more about the future than their competitors. In technical analysis, knowing > the future is often associated with the use of particular indicators or > indicator combinations. The objective is to identify something before it > happens-every time. Technicians spend a lot of time developing subtle > mathematical manipulations they believe help them to tell the future. > I agree with Larry Williams, the US commodity trader who is noted for > turning a $10,000 stake into $1,000,000 in less than 12 months. He notes a > survey of newsletter trading approaches in *Long Term Secrets to Short > Term Trading*. He says the performance figures are very revealing; "I went > back three years and found that the poorest performers in 1995, 1996, and > 1997 have consistently been the Gann/Elliott/Acarne group who, as a group, > have averaged a loss of close to 100% a year. This from a crowd that claims > all can be known, that you really can buy bottoms and sell exact tops." > This is harsh criticism, yet some people do use these approaches very > successfully. Closer inspection though often shows they also use good > trading techniques that return good trading results under almost any system. > Personally, I believe risk is not effectively or completely nullified > by techniques designed to tell us something about the future. When I use > tools designed to anticipate market action I apply them within the context > of this belief. > > *Probability* > If risk is unable to be nullified by analysis, then where does this leave > us? It doesn't mean we cannot trade the market. It means we re-focus our > attention on what is easily verified and use it construct an understanding > of the balance of probability in any situations. We do not need to know the > future to recognize an opportunity. Aladdin did not know he would find his > cave, but he did know how to exploit the opportunity when he stumbled onto > it. > This is my starting point for trading. I stand in the probability > camp. I accept uncertainty and this determines what I look for when > selecting a chart and indicator combinations for trading the market. I start > from the proposition that I cannot predict the future so I aim to identify > the probability of one outcome in comparison to another. This is the first > step in managing risk. > > >
