kondisi sekarang bakal dipakai alasan bernanke untuk melanjutkan quantitative easing jilid 3...BUY BUY BUY :)
On 5/6/11, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > Referring to the code we shared on April 28: "siM&ga", the latest > development across all markets confirm the global seasonal effect of > selling-in-May-and going-away. The awaiting of solid signal for this selling > is no longer in need for the release of tomorrow's US data on non-farm > payroll data. The two preceding job reports have provided a strong clue on > the negative sentiment lingering intrigues on how to react to weakening US > GDP data. > > The inclination to sell increased with news that US initial jobless claims > for the week ended April 30 spiked to 474,000, which is the highest level in > the series since August 2010. The spike in initial claims proved much > sharper than what had been expected for an initial claims count closer to > 400,000. Additionally, the underestimated increases in jobless claims during > the past few weeks, coupled with yesterday's disappointing ADP Employment > Change report for April, has caused some concern about what tomorrow > morning's official jobs report might look like. > > Looking closely and carefully to the functioning pattern of selling-in-May > over decades we might come to a conclusion that this seasonal effect works > only in certain economic environments. If one can identify those > environments than one can successfully sell in May and go away. The clue has > anything to do with odd/even numbered year. It is more baseless > superstitious than measured provable statistics. We should check in what > cycle or environment we are now. > > In the US, based on the Behavioral Finance Investment Advisors (BFIA), we > have detected three periods in the past forty years that are similar to > today. One of those periods is 2004. Let us take a look at 2004. From the > beginning of January to the 3rd > week in April the S&P 500 increased over 4%. From the end of April to the > beginning of August it fell over 4% and from August to December is increased > around 13%. From the beginning of January to April 15th, 2011 the &P 500 is > up around 5% similar to the first quarter of 2004. > > The conclusion here is that it is important to identify the investment cycle > that we are currently in and then decide whether the seasonal > effect applies. Forget all the other noise in the market. Where we are in > the cycle is what matters. > > Based on our indicators we see a continuation of 2004 in the US. Therefore, > we suggest to sell in May and go away. For the other two periods that > match today's indicator level, the next three months were also down months. > However, the U.S. indicator level is at a bullish level, which signifies > that there will not be another flash crash. That volatility will not > increase to absurd levels as in the flash crash. The market will trend down > a while, with occasional pops. > > What about Indonesia? Well, the circumstances and cycle are not much of > difference. The fact that market is now riding their late stage of bullish > cycle is similar to those in 2010 and 2004. This selling-in-May did not > happen in 2009 because market was at its earlier development stage of > primary bull cycle. Thus, we expect and anticipate the selling-in-May not > only in the US and Indonesia but worldwide, with of course, different level > of risk absorption. In case of Indonesia, the anticipated decline may not as > bad as in what possibly happens in the US. > > What are the ways to play the U.S. stock market in the next three months? > 1. Raise cash to at least 50%. Wait for three months and then re-deploy that > cash; > 2. Keep your current portfolio but buy protection for the next three months; > 3. Long volatility. > > Indonesia? You can still enjoy the play with little worries than the game in > the US, but still anticipate to raise a bit cash, perhaps 20-30%, would be > just fine. > > '+' > > > On Thu, Apr 28, 2011 at 2:51 PM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > >> 5 >> >> '+' >> > ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. [email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
