Note: NOT necessarily our view, but we want to look around what bearish side of the market are saying.
The bears say that even if the economy grows, speculation is so excessive that prices no longer reflect supply and demand. The S&P GSCI Index is 39 percent higher than a year ago and more than twice where it was in February 2009, when economies were recovering from the global recession. Commodities other than a few like coal are at the start of a bear market that may last as long as five to 10 years, said Michael Aronstein, the president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York who correctly predicted the 2008 slump that drove the benchmark index down 66 percent in seven months. The scale of investment means “supply and demand is almost meaningless,” Aronstein said in an interview May 6. “It’s almost like the last days of the tech bubble.” “This is probably the beginning of a bear phase, even if it’s temporary, where the dollar and bonds will be more popular than commodities,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “It’s fitting hand in glove with the U.S. slowdown story.” '+'
