We will see if SMCB would be a suitable HOLP play is on as the closing of today's trade. HOLP is a reversal play. I will short tops and buy bottoms only upon confirmation of this setup. I generally use this for swing/short term plays, but it is valid on all time frames including smaller time frames for intraday plays. HOLP is acronym for "high of the low period", and if you short, you call it LOHP or "low of the high period". We refer to them as "HOPE" and "LOPE".
1. Identify a trending market, or individual stock, that is ideally making new 20-day (or period) lows. This is a rule of thumb and markets that are only making 17-or-18 day (or period) lows are also fine. The point is that you want to see a definitive trend and be ready to step in when the trend reverses. 2. Identify the low bar in the downtrend. This is typically the current bar, but it could be a few bars back. By "low bar" I mean the bar with the lowest intraday price prints in the entire move lower. 3. Once I identify the low bar, I will then go long once price action closes above the high of this low bar. (Say that really fast three times.) 4. The initial stop is the low of the low bar. If I am still in the trade on the third day, or period, I will start to use a trailing stop. This simple setup works in all markets, in all time frames. I usually use this play on individual stocks and their corresponding stock options, stock index futures, and the forex currencies on the 60-minute and daily charts. What about SMCB as per its closing today? It is definitely a HOLP play so far, and the price action of 2.125 today closes above the high of the new 20-day low bar yesterday at 2,100. Fundamentally, the play gets long term support by its inclusion into MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index representing small cap. This would provide support and blast of more institutional buyers lining up many days/months ahead. '+'
