Everyone knows what were and are currently driving the market: commodities amid the commodities themselves rout. We are interested to look over many people's shoulders, and continue what we left yesterday on SMCB play.
In addition to SMCB inclusion into MSCI Indonesia Market Investable Index last Monday which will accrodingly bring with it a lot of foreign institutional buyers, we see the truth in what CIMB-GK Securities Pte, the yesterday's top buyer of SMCB, said as published in Bloomberg that: "...it (CIMB, '+') finds “value” in the company. The stock is a laggard to its cement peers and offers more “attractive upside potential in terms of margins and growth." We do find "value" moreover when we compare SMCB with SMGR as our referenced MorganStanley chart showed below. In contrast to SMCB, SMGR seems convincingly to have topped the roof and expectedly start to tremble. [image: SMGR.png] We will see in a couple of days ahead if what CLSA set as target price of SMCB at 3200 with maintained stock "buy" will eventually come into play. As far as technical investing is concerned, our automatic O'Neill's chart pattern detection reminds us of the possible "cup and handle" formation in making. '+' On Wed, May 18, 2011 at 4:00 PM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > We will see if SMCB would be a suitable HOLP play is on as the closing of > today's trade. HOLP is a reversal play. I will short tops and buy bottoms > only upon confirmation of this setup. I generally use this for swing/short > term plays, but it is valid on all time frames including smaller time frames > for intraday plays. HOLP is acronym for "high of the low period", and if you > short, you call it LOHP or "low of the high period". We refer to them as > "HOPE" and "LOPE". > > 1. Identify a trending market, or individual stock, that is ideally making > new 20-day (or period) lows. This is a rule of thumb and markets that are > only making 17-or-18 day (or period) lows are also fine. The point is that > you want to see a definitive trend and be ready to step in when the trend > reverses. > > 2. Identify the low bar in the downtrend. This is typically the current > bar, but it could be a few bars back. By "low bar" I mean the bar with the > lowest intraday price prints in the entire move lower. > > 3. Once I identify the low bar, I will then go long once price action > closes above the high of this low bar. (Say that really fast three times.) > > 4. The initial stop is the low of the low bar. If I am still in the trade > on the third day, or period, I will start to use a trailing stop. > > This simple setup works in all markets, in all time frames. I usually use > this play on individual stocks and their corresponding stock options, stock > index futures, and the forex currencies on the 60-minute and daily charts. > > What about SMCB as per its closing today? It is definitely a HOLP play so > far, and the price action of 2.125 today closes above the high of the new > 20-day low bar yesterday at 2,100. Fundamentally, the play gets long term > support by its inclusion into MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index > representing small cap. This would provide support and blast of more > institutional buyers lining up many days/months ahead. > > '+' >
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