Sell Banking... Inflasi bakal kenceng lagi! On 6/21/11, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > In our previous post (below), May 31, we brought to the attention, Morgan > Stanley downgrading of Indonesian equity to underweight ( > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/message/119358). Now, Morgan Stanley has > poised to look for Indonesia Rupiah correction by year-end with target > 9,200/USD. > > Inflation has become the major theme to be anticipated for the remainder of > 2011 (see Chart 1) as excessive liquidity suggests that upside inflation > risks remain (see Chart 2). This downside catalyst is inline with Indonesia > Rupiah valuation which seems to have stretched above its fair value (see > Chart 3). > > At the end, Indonesian stock market is still considered expensive (see Chart > 4). MSCI Indonesia’s price/book is 4.0x (which is the highest in the region) > and price/sales is 2.7x (which is 1.5sd above its long-term average). > > We second to Morgan Stanley position in this respect as we do not see yet a > call for equity reversal, at least for the next 2 weeks. However, as Morgan > Stanley also noted, we are also aware that there are investors with ‘strong > hands’ who are prepared to weather or cool down large corrections. > > Chart 1 - USD/IDR Breaks Higher When Inflation Surges > [image: MS Chart 1.png] > > Chart 2 - Excessive Liquidity Suggests that Upside Inflation Risks Remain > [image: MS Chart 2.png] > > Chart 3 - IDR's Valuation Is Stretched > [image: MS Chart 3.png] > > Chart 4 - Indonesia's Stock Market Is Looking Expensive > [image: MS Chart 4.png] > > '+' > > On Tue, May 31, 2011 at 9:10 AM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Following its downgrade on Thai equity to underweight on May 25 ( >> http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/05/26/thai-equities-a-bearish-view/), >> Morgan Stanley, which relates closely to the worldwide acknowledged >> international equity market indicex of MSCI (Morgan Stanley & Capital >> International), issued the same status of underweight for Indonesian >> equity >> on late Friday, May 27. "Underweight" which in general trading house >> recommendation means "bearish" or "sell" is imposed as a general clue to >> the >> overall affected market. However, it should be understood with a >> reservation >> relating to preference among sectors within the intended market. In later >> note, we will share what on what should be taken as a further guidance in >> anticipating this downgrading move. >> >> As under the attachment below, Morgan Stanley summarize what has become >> the >> reasoning behind. Morgan Stanley raised Indonesian equity to Equal-weight >> in >> September last year. >> >> While Morgan Stanley downgraded Indonesia to Underweight, at the same time >> they upgrade South Korea and Brazil to Overweight, and keep Czech to >> Equal-weight. >> >> [image: MS Indo Downgrade.png] >> >> Direct Re-quote: >> *Indonesia’s model ranking falls to # 17 from #11:* Deteriorations were in >> currency rank (#10 from #5), technical (#19 from #14 – second most >> overbought market), Dividend yield (#15 to #10) and Earnings Revision >> breadth (#16 from #12). Relative forward P/E premium to MSCI EM is now at >> an >> all-time high of 1.35x. >> >> [image: Indo 12-Month Forward PE Premium (May 2011).png] >> >> *[image: Indo PBV Over-valuation (May 2011).png] >> * >> * >> * >> *Morgan Stanley* is a global financial services firm headquartered in New >> York City serving a diversified group of corporations, governments, >> financial institutions, and individuals. Morgan Stanley also operates in >> 36 >> countries around the world, with over 600 offices and a workforce of over >> 60,000. >> >> *Financial Highlights* (Fiscal year ending December 31, 2010) >> Net Revenues$31.6 billionTotal Assets$807.7 billion Shareholders’ >> Equity$57.2 >> billionNet Income$5.7 billion Total Capital$222.8 billionTier 1 Capital >> Ratio under Basel16.1%'+' >> >
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