CIMB SECURITIES: Buy INTP, Target Price Rp. 19.300
Riset TERBARU CIMB Securities (YU) memberi target INTP Rp. 19.300. Buy INTP yg masih murah meriah. Kemarin Asing, khususnya Credit Suisse (CS) borong banyak. *1QFY10 RESULTS* May 2011 *NEUTRAL *Maintained *Indocement RP17,100 * Target: Rp19,300 *The cash king *Mkt.Cap: Rp62,949bn/US$7,368m • *Ahead; maintain Neutral. *1Q11 core profit of Rp850bn is 2% ahead of our forecast and 4% ahead of consensus, from higher-than-expected revenue from its concrete business. Despite this, we are maintaining our forecasts as contributions from the concrete business are low. Accordingly, we keep our target price of Rp19,300, still based on 15.6x CY12 P/E as well as our Neutral rating, as we believe the bulk of the upside has been factored in. EBITDA/tonne growth has been decelerating and further margin improvements from operations appear limited. • *1Q11 core EPS up 10.6% yoy. *Revenue grew 15% yoy on higher non-cement sales (concrete) as well as higher implied ASPs for exported cement. Cement sales grew 10% yoy to Rp2.7tr, led by domestic sales growth of 9%. This implies flat ASPs, in line with our expectation and industry trends. Energy costs rose sharply, resulting in declining gross margins. Lower-than-expected operating expense however, helped to offset the decline in EBIT margins. • *Cash at US$560m*. Cash position inched up to Rp4.9tr with no debt as the company has paid its US$25m revolving loan. It plans to start the construction of another mill which should be completed in 2012/13. Total spending of US$140m should be internally financed. *Results comparison* *FYE Dec (Rp bn) 1QFY11 1QFY10 yoy % 4QFY10 qoq % Prev.* *chg chg FY11F Comments* Rev enue 2 ,944 2 ,550 *15.5 *3 ,030 *(2.8) *12,712 Slightly ahead on higher RMC grow th Operating costs (1,735) (1,413) *22.8 *(1,772) *(2.1) *(7,191) Energy cost offset by low er opex EBITDA 1,209 1 ,137 *6.3 *1 ,258 *(3.9) *5,521 *EBITDA margin (%) 41.1% 44.6% 41.5% 43.4% *Below on low er D&A Depn & amort. (148) (157) *(5.7) *( 212) *(30.2) *( 692) EBIT 1,061 980 *8.2 *1 ,046 *1.4 *4,829 Ahead on low er cost Interest ex pense ( 5) ( 4) *51.5 *( 5) *10.9 *( 3) Ahead Interest & inv t inc 6 3 4 5 *41.6 *5 6 *13.4 *2 28 In line Forex gain (loss) 5 1 5 *(69.7) *( 0) *2,638.2 *3 Others 13 0 *11,259.1 *1 2 *8.9 *- Ahead *Pretax profit 1,136 1,036 **9.6 **1,109 **2.5 **5,058 *Slightly ahead Tax ( 269) (250) *7.6 *( 266) *0.9 *(1,264) Slightly low er tax Tax rate (%) 24% 24% 24% 25% Ahead Minority interests ( 2.2) 0.3 *(832.4) *( 0.7) *202.4 *- *Net profit 865 7 87 **10.0 **8 42 **2.8 **3,793* *Core net profit 850 7 68 **10.6 **8 33 **2.0 **3,790 *Forming 22%, 2% ahead of our estimate EPS (Rp) 235 2 14 229 1 ,030 Core EPS (Rp) 231 2 09 226 1 ,030 Source: *Company*, *CIMB Research*
