Persis sebagaimana indikasi dalam update kami pada post sebelumnya 14 Juli: *July 13: Goldman Sachs Pointers Update on CPO* ( http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/message/125550).
"Malaysia will produce 18.6 million tons of palm oil in 2011, up 16 percent from a three-year low last year, Oil World said. Indonesia’s output this year will rise 8.1 percent to 24 million tons, according to the report." *Bloomberg: Vegetable Oil Output May Climb on Palm Yields, Oil World Says* Vegetable oil production may gain 4 percent in 2011 following a larger increase last year as higher yields in Malaysia<http://topics.bloomberg.com/malaysia/> and Indonesia boost palm-oil <http://topics.bloomberg.com/palm-oil/> output, Hamburg- based researcher Oil World said in a report today. World production of palm, soy, cotton, groundnut, sun, rape, palmkernel and coconut oils will rise to 145.7 million metric tons this year, Oil World said. Palm oil production will rise 8.5 percent to 49.8 million tons, according to the report. Soy oil output will gain 5.2 percent to 42.3 million tons, the researcher said. “Palm oil production is set to continue to rise sizably from a year earlier during the remainder of this year,” Oil World said. “World production has recovered sizably since March 2011, mainly in Malaysia and Indonesia, with yields per tree showing a clear-cut improvement after two years of below-average productivity.” Palm oil futures have lost 18 percent this year on prospects for bigger inventories as better weather resulted in higher output from Indonesia<http://topics.bloomberg.com/indonesia/> and Malaysia, the biggest producers. Malaysia will produce 18.6 million tons of palm oil in 2011, up 16 percent from a three-year low last year, Oil World said. Indonesia’s output this year will rise 8.1 percent to 24 million tons, according to the report. Palm oil production in the second half of the year will total 26.8 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from last year, Oil World said. Malaysian output will gain 9 percent from the second half of last year to 10 million tons and Indonesian production will rise 7.2 percent to 13.3 million tons, according to the report. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/vegetable-oil-output-may-climb-on-palm-yields-oil-world-says.html '+' On Thu, Jul 14, 2011 at 10:28 AM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > *June 2011 inventories continue to rise* > The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that June 2011 *palm oil > inventories continued to rise*, up > 6.8% mom (+41% yoy) to 2.05 mn tons. This was below market expectations (a > Reuters poll indicated 2.13 > mn tons), which we believe was mainly due to stronger exports ahead of the > festival season (+12.4% mom). > > *Production growth trend may continue rising seasonally* > *Going forward, we believe that CPO (crude palm oil) production may > continue rising sequentially* until the > seasonal peak, which is typically in Sept/Oct. To some extent this may be > partially offset by rising exports, as > we approach the festival season (i.e., Ramadhan (August), Diwali (October) > and Golden Week in China > (October)). Still, *we do not expect a meaningful reduction in inventories > in the near term*. > > *Inventories may continue rising in July* > According to the normal seasonal trend, *CPO production in July tends to > increase mom*. Meanwhile, exports > remain lackluster—cargo surveyor, SGS, estimates *palm oil exports for the > first 10 days of July fell 3.3%* > *mom*. If exports do not accelerate significantly, *we expect a further > increase in inventories in July*. > > '+'
