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    STEPHEN CASTLE AND LOUISE STORY, On Thursday August 11, 2011, 8:05 am
EDT

BRUSSELS — A European market regulator is considering recommending a
temporary ban on negative bets against stocks across the continent, in an
effort to stop the tailspin in the markets, according to two people with
knowledge of government discussions.

The European Securities and Markets Authority, a body that coordinates the
European Union’s market policies, has been requesting information from
member states about such bets against stocks, known as short-sales.

In such deals, a trader sells borrowed shares in hopes that they will
decline in value before he has to buy them back to close out his loan. The
difference in price is his profit. Critics say short selling encourages
speculation and pushes stock prices down, sometimes feeding on itself in a
panicked market, while advocates say it keeps the market honest and
maintains liquidity.

“We are discussing with national authorities and together we will decide
whether we need coordinated action,” said Victoria Powell, a spokesperson
for the E.S.M.A. She declined to comment on the timing of any decision or
its possible scope.

The two people knowledgeable about the discussions said the authority might
propose a ban on betting against all stocks or just financial stocks. It
also may propose a ban on a certain type of short selling in which the party
making the negative bet does not borrow the share it is shorting first. The
bans would likely be temporary, just to calm the markets.

Such a policy would add to the list of parallels commentators are making
between the current market panic and the financial crisis of 2008.

Back then, several governments including Britain and the United States,
banned short-selling on financial stocks temporarily. The ban was meant to
help bank stocks from falling further, but in time, stocks fell anyway.
Hedge funds, in particular, were hurt by the ban because it interfered with
lots of trading strategies that pair negative bets with positive ones.

Earlier this week, Greece banned short selling for the next two months on
all of its stocks. Ms. Powell said that the E.S.M.A. began consulting
national regulators when it was informed by Athens about the impending move.

South Korea also began a three-month ban this week, and Turkey, where the
main index has fallen nearly 20 percent this month, moved on Thursday to
curb short selling as well, Bloomberg News reported.

The ban on short-selling in 2008 has been widely criticized ever since and
blamed for driving investors out of the market altogether, further hurting
stock prices.

It is impossible to know whether the panic would have been worse without the
ban, which protected companies like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, but
general studies of short selling have found that bans on that activity can
lead to more volatility in the market and lower trading volume, according to
Andrew W. Lo, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mr. Lo said removing short-selling also removes important information about
what investors think about the financial health of companies, and suggested
the bans serve mainly political purposes.

“It’s a bit like suggesting we take heart patients in the emergency room off
of the heart monitor because you don’t want to make doctors and nurses
anxious about the patient,” Mr. Lo said.

The E.S.M.A. does not have the authority to impose a policy on short-selling
but it can make recommendations and coordinate cooperation among the
European Union’s 27 governments. The European Parliament is considering
legislation to give E.S.M.A. additional powers.

Some investors are already anticipating that such a ban may occur, said
Robert Sloan, managing partner of S3 Partners, a firm that helps hedge funds
manage their relationships with their brokers.

Mr. Sloan said that for the last two months many investors have been getting
out of their short positions in part out of fear that such a ban might be
introduced.

He also said if there were more short-sellers in the market now, the markets
might be falling less than they are. That’s because as markets fall,
short-sellers often close their positions to cash in profits and in doing
so, they have to purchase shares to cash out.

The markets could use these sorts of buyers now, said Mr. Sloan, who wrote a
book after the 2008 crisis called “Don’t Blame the Shorts: Why Short Sellers
Are Always Blamed for Market Crashes and How History Is Repeating Itself.”

Arturo Bris, a professor of finance at the IMD business school in Lausanne,
Switzerland, studied financial stock prices in 2008 before and after a
short-selling policy was put in place. On Wednesday, Mr. Bris said that he
did not think such a ban in Europe would help in the long run.

“If there is a ban in the European markets in the next couple weeks it would
stop the blood, but it’s not going to solve the problem. It would just delay
the problem,” Mr. Bris said.

Even if Europe does ban short sales of some stocks, investors who are
negative on companies may still find ways to bet against them in the
derivatives market, if those sorts of trades remain allowed.

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