*Cramer Looks At What's Changed In This Market*

"You are not going to like this, but the one thing I didn’t want to see was 
the stock market rally," Cramer said Thursday, as stocks ended higher and 
the Nasdaq added 3 percent. "To me this increase was as preposterous as 
yesterday’s decline. Rallies like this bring out all of the bottom callers.

"They create a false level of security. They give people a sense that, 'Ah 
ha! The worst is over,' when in fact, it could be far from over."

When you have a move like this, Cramer said you have to look at what's 
different. So what's new?

First, Cisco reported a strong quarter. Its stock soared more than 15 
percent after the tech bellwether beat profit and revenue expectations and 
delivered an encouraging outlook. In addition, Morgan Stanley raised its 
rating on the firm to "overweight" from "equal weight."

Second, senior government said that a short-selling ban will be imposed in 
France and Italy after the European market close, sources told CNBC. The 
news caused covering by the short-sellers and scared the rumor-mongerers 
into taking a break from repeating 2008 all over again, Cramer said.

Third, weekly jobless claims hit a four-month low, dropping 7,000 to a 
seasonally adjusted 395,000 in the previous week, according to the Labor 
Department. Economists had forecast claims steady at 400,000, according to a 
Reuters poll.

Fourth, gold broke, posting a $45 decline. Cramer has said we can't get a 
rally unless gold goes down. After all, he thinks of it as a currency play 
against the euro. So as long as the euro has troubles, people will buy up 
gold. The margin requirement hike helped it go down Thursday, though, and so 
Cramer thinks it won't be long before prices go back up. So the exchange 
will just have to keep raising the margin requirement, he said.

Finally, there was massive insider buying. Insiders can't trade. They have 
to invest, meaning they have to wait at least six months before they sell, 
so they don't buy unless they have some longer-term visibility into the 
company's future.

*OK. Now that we know what's different, what hasn't changed?*

Cramer said the U.S. is still dealing with the lack of political leadership 
in the wake of the S&P downgrade on U.S. debt, as well as Europe's ongoing 
debt troubles. Speaking of Europe, Cramer said the damage over there will be 
considerable. The situation over there is already a smoking mess. It won't 
be long before it could turn into a blinding fire that consumes 500 points 
on the Dow, Cramer said.

*So what's the bottom line?*

"The exaggerated moves and their velocity are signs of sickness, not of 
health," Cramer said. "I reiterate, use them to reposition and, yes, to 
raise cash, until we see fundamental longer-term change and not just a 
couple of better-than-expected quarters, a few thousand fewer jobs lost, 
some insider buying and a ban on shorting crummy French and Italian banks."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44113765

'+'

Kirim email ke