Unlikely, authornya emg suka ksh komen yg berlebihan. Pengen liat dow ke 10334 dl
More on tweetz @MisterSaham Sent from iphone On 2011/09/13, at 22:11, [email protected] wrote: > Dow Could Crash to 3,000 in 2013: Author > > CNBC.com | September 12, 2011 | 12:58 AM EDT > > The recent gyrations in global stock markets are just the beginning, says > U.S.-based economist and author Harry Dent, who believes the Dow will fall > below 10,000 in the near term before crashing to around 3,000 in 2013. > > "I think the stock crash started in late April. This is just the first wave > down...I think the crash really starts some time in early 2012," said the > Founder and CEO of economic research company HS Dent and author of upcoming > book "The Great Crash Ahead". > > He pointed to the selloff during the last global financial crisis, when the > Dow > > [ .DJI 11070.96  +9.84 (+0.09%) ] lost around 8,000 points in the period > between October 2007 and early 2009. > > Dent based his bearish predictions squarely on the changing spending habits > of global consumers. > > "Baby boomers around the world, and all the developed countries — Europe, > North America, Australia — they have peaked in their spending > cycles...they've been driving up real estates prices and stock prices and the > economy for decades, and now they're going to be saving and not borrowing," > Dent said. > > Accentuating the problem is the deleveraging of U.S. private debt, which has > doubled to $42 trillion from $20 trillion in the last eight years, according > to Dent, and is now valued at three times the size of the nation’s public > debt. > > "That debt is deleveraging, and that's actually causing deflationary trends. > It won't matter how much stimulus the government throws at the system, > because baby boomers with their already huge debt burdens will not want to > borrow money and spend more,” said Dent. > > "In the Great Depression, that's what happened — deflation came in such a > deep downturn because so much debt was deleveraging." > > According to Dent, the spending in the boom years has led to the biggest > global real estate and credit bubble in history. He believes the worst hit > will be those places where the bubble hasn't burst yet — West Canada, > Australia and China. > > "Bubbles go back to where they started," he noted. U.S. housing prices, he > observed, have fallen 34 percent since their peak, and will drop by another > 30 percent. "There's a lot more pain coming, especially in real estate," said > Dent, who sold his home in Miami, Florida in October 2005, and doesn’t intend > to buy property until the market bottoms in a few years. > > The only solution to the crisis, Dent offers, is for policy-makers to > intervene and write down debt. > > "You can't deal with this crisis without dealing with the debt first because > the demographics are not in your favor. So it's the only thing you can do, by > writing down debt, you free up cash flow for consumers and businesses. It's > the only thing you can do in a crisis like this after such a major debt and > credit bubble.” > > Avoid Gold, Silver; Buy Dollars > > Contrary to what most analysts are recommending, Dent advises staying > cautious on gold > > [ XAU= 1825.16  +11.91 (+0.66%) ] and silver [ XAG= 40.60  +0.39 (+0.97%) > ], and stocking up on U.S. dollars. > > "I think gold and silver are a bubble. It's the most dangerous place to be," > Dent said. “Gold's kind of a wild card, but what we notice it's gone > parabolic. We've been telling people… to get out of gold at $2,000.” > > He thinks silver has peaked at $50. “The last time silver went to $50, it > crashed back to $4 within two years.” > > As the deleveraging process takes place and most asset classes fall, Dent > says the one asset that will return to its safe haven status will be the > greenback, > > "Debts get written off. That destroys dollars. It makes the dollars more > scarce. It restores its value." > > Correction: A previous version of the story incorrectly quoted Harry Dent as > saying U.S. private debt was $42 billion. He actually said $42 trillion. > > "A professional trader isolates himself from the herd and has trained himself > to become a predator rather than a victim." - Tom Williams > > > Sent from my AXIS Worry Free BlackBerry® smartphone > >
