Arsip Juli 2011.

Yang ini sudah lama tercapai. Akhirnya, tidak perlu 52 week, cukup 'within'.

Bagaimana? Rp5,000 by Credit Suisse?:d

'+'

On Tue, Jul 12, 2011 at 1:06 PM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote:

> Elaborated pointers from Morgan Stanley reiterating underweight/sell PGAS
> last week, July 8.
>
> *Gas constraints and 2012 earnings risk*: Our 2012 EPS estimate is 4%
> lower than consensus
>  and assumes gas volumes of 895mmscfd. However, we see up to 8% additional
> downside to our
> EPS forecast if the 100mmscfd of gas earlier diverted from ConocoPhillips
> does not return in
> 2012. We expect new gas supplies in Indonesia to ramp up only in 2013, and
> with current basins
> maturing, gas sourcing will remain issue for PGAS in the medium term.
>
> *Incremental gas at lower ROE*: PGAS is looking to obtain additional gas
> through liquefied
> natural gas supplies, coal bed methane, and acquiring stakes in E&P fields.
> We estimate the gas
> ROE from these sources would be a low 12-15%, versus PGAS’s current average
> of 46%. Also,
> PGAS’ current transmission business generates an estimated 7% ROE, below
> its 15.7% COE.
>
> *Defensive but unattractive valuations/EBITDA growth*: PGAS, for which we
> estimate EBITDA
> growth at a 7% CAGR, 2010-13, trades in line with comparables (which have
> an estimated
> 15-18% growth) in P/E and EV/EBITDA terms. Hence, we expect the stock to
> underperform the
> broader Indonesian market and other Asian utilities.
>
> '+'
>
> On Tue, Jul 12, 2011 at 9:01 AM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Defensive but unattractive valuations.
>>
>> '+'
>>
>
>

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