Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said investors should keep buying commodities because “supply disappointments” will support prices even as the sovereign-debt crisis and slowing economies threaten demand.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index of 24 raw materials will climb 20 percent in the next 12 months, said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman’s London-based head of commodity research. Copper will jump 43 percent to a record $11,000 a metric ton, while crude oil in New York surges 62 percent to $131 a barrel, he forecast. The bank correctly advised investors to sell oil and copper in April and turned more bullish the following month as metals and energy rebounded. “Despite the recent macroeconomic uncertainty, commodity prices have been remarkably resilient,” Currie said in a report today. “Driving this resiliency and substantially less volatility has been continued evidence of a relatively stronger fundamental picture due to a combination of supply disappointments and significant demand” from emerging markets. “We believe that a global recession and/or financial crisis would be required to derail our constructive commodity views,” Currie said. “We continue to recommend an overweight positioning in commodities.” “We believe that the recent sell-off presents a relatively good opportunity for longer-dated purchases,” Currie said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/goldman-sachs-maintains-overweight-position-in-commodities.html '+'
