Katanya, pasar saham bereaksi pada 31 Oktober, salah satunya karena oil price. Katanya gitu...tahu deh siapa yg ngomong.
Setahu saya yg awam, naik-turunnya oil price sejajar dengan naik-turunnya indeks saham...benar atau gak, silahkan dkoreksi Berhubung saya awam, saya mau tanya apa dan bagaimana laju kenaikan harga minyak bisa ditahan? Jika bisa menahan kenaikan harga minyak, sampai berapa lama? Kenaikan/turunnya harga minyak bisa mempengaruhi banyak hal. Walau harga minyak juga dipengaruhi banyak hal juga....hehehe Sebenarnya, jika gak diguncang isu psikologis krisis Eropa dan Amrik, harga minyak diprediksi bisa capai USD 90an / barrel. Malah bisa capai USD 100an/barrel katanya tahun ini. Hal ini dipengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia yg makin tinggi dan butuh energi; terutama Asia. Nah....jika para analisis minyak udah prediksi (sejak duluuuuuu) bahwa kebutuhan energi makin tinggi terutam di Asia, yg tandanya pertumbuhan ekonomi Asia perlu diperhitungkan, lalu kenapa pasar saham Asia panik ya???? Apalagi IHSG....halah.....merah meluluuuuu...dukun-dukun bermunculan. Sebelum e-mail saya muncul, si mbah Yan nongol... Dari kacamata saya yg awam, isu krisis di Eropa dengan dikaitkan dengan keputusan OPEC yg diprotes IEA (basis Eropa) agak lucu. Okay...katakanlah Eropa lagi ada isu krisis....lalu OPEC sebagai organisasi kartel minyak dunia bilang: "gue potong kuota minyak dunia ya...tahun 2012 gak butuh minyak banyak, khan lagi krisis...." ....lha kenapa IEA pengen OPEC keluarkan output lebih? Kenapa? Takut harga minyak dunia melambung tinggi lagi? Kalo takut, berarti takut harga-harga saham dunia ikut naik juga dong... Puyeng...akhirnya intervensi mata uang dong....sampai berapa lama bisa menahan laju kenaikan harga minyak? "If you want to rule the world you need to control the oil. All the oil. Anywhere." Michel Collon, Monopoly ------------------------------------------------------ Asia faces rocky road in securing energy needs SINGAPORE | Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:45am EDT (Reuters) - Governments in emerging Asian economies will struggle to secure their rising energy needs as rapidly swelling demand in leading consumers China and India outpaces growth in supplies, which is likely to keep oil prices over $100 a barrel. High fuel costs for importers are threatening their economies as they grapple with rising subsidy bills and inflation. The fuel burden, with oil imports costing around 5 percent of gross domestic product, is weighing on economic growth, said Richard Jones, deputy executive director of the International Energy Agency. "It's particularly sensitive in emerging markets, India is a country that has got a particularly high oil burden, they import a lot," Jones said. The rise in prices has been partly blamed on the growing energy appetite of Asian nations. China, the world's second-biggest economy, has driven oil demand growth for a good part of the past decade. India is also competing to secure scarce energy resources for its billion-plus people. The global economy needs to see lower prices, Nobuo Tanaka, former head of the International Energy Agency, said. "If $100 oil continues, it will be as bad as 2008," Tanaka told the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW) conference. Brent prices have averaged over $111 a barrel so far this year, sharply up from an average of around $80 in 2010. The front-month contract hit a high of $147.50 in July 2008, just ahead of the global financial crisis of that year. Brent at over $100 would cut global oil demand by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from what fuel consumption would be at a price of $70 to $80 per barrel, Tanaka said. That would slice more than 1 percent from total world fuel consumption. Brent will average $106.80 per barrel next year and $108.60 in 2013, a recent Reuters poll of 35 analysts showed, as demand for fuel from China and other emerging economies keeps the global oil market tight. <O/POLL> The burden of high energy costs on growth contributed to the sharp slowdown in the global economy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. High prices led to such a sharp slowdown in fuel demand that oil producer group OPEC was forced to make record output cuts. The oil minister for the United Arab Emirates did say producers can tolerate a further fall in oil prices to $80-$100 a barrel, the first indication of a preferred price range from a Gulf Arab producer since OPEC talks collapsed in June. High oil prices would help guarantee future supplies, UAE oil minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli said, by encouraging more investment in crude production capacity, which would mean less volatile prices. "We need a reasonable price to continue building capacity," Hamli told the conference. "The higher the capacity, the less fluctuation in prices." The UAE, one of three Gulf OPEC producers with spare capacity, is pumping at 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from capacity of 2.7 million bpd, Hamli said, having upped output to help meet a supply shortfall from Libya. The Arab Spring and the disruption to Libya's oil output have added to the difficulty policy makers face as they search for secure oil supplies. "The recent spate of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa has generated doubt over the reliability of energy supplies from the region," said S Iswaran, minister in the Singapore Prime Minister's office. "These events have caused increased volatility in energy markets and prices, heightening the policy challenge of governments to secure reliable and affordable energy supplies to sustain growth." Oil prices are not expected to decline in the longer term, the CEOs of two major oil companies said at the conference. "Oil prices will not come down for quite a long time," said Shell CEO Peter Voser, while Petrobras Chief Executive Jose Gabrielli said he didn't see a reason for a price decline in the next 5 to 10 years. (Additional reporting by Simon Webb, Jessica Jaganathan, Luke Pachymuthu, Randy Fabi; Writing by Manash Goswami; Editing by Michael Urquhart and Clarence Fernandez) ----------------------------------------------------- Oil falls on dollar strength, equities slip By Robert Gibbons NEW YORK | Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:41pm EDT (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in low-volume trading on Monday as the dollar rose against the yen after Japan intervened in the market to stem the rise of its currency. Both Brent and U.S. crude futures remained on pace to post monthly gains. Brokers and analysts attributed at least some of the weak volume and choppy price movements to MF Global Holdings Ltd (MF.N), the futures broker run by former Goldman Sachs chief Jon Corzine, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. "It's not going to be as easy moving accounts over to a new firm. There are going to be a lot of people in line and so I would think that it's going to be a very volatile, low volume week," said Carl Larry, of Blue Ocean Brokerage. The U.S. dollar climbed to a three-month high against the yen after Japan's latest intervention, its third this year and less than three months after the previous, coming only days before a Group of 20 leaders' summit in France. The euro weakened against the greenback and the dollar index .DXY strengthened against a basket of currencies. A stronger dollar can pressure dollar-denominated oil by making it more expensive for consumers using other currencies. "This morning, it is the Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market. On the macro front, it is a big week this week," Olivier Jakob with Petromatrix said. ICE Brent December crude fell $1.26 to $108.65 a barrel by 1:25 p.m. (1725 GMT), having moved below the 50-day moving average at $109.67 and as low as $108.20. Brent remained on track to post a 6 percent monthly gain, biggest percentage rise since April. U.S. December crude fell $1.01 to $92.31 a barrel, after dropping as low as $91.36, still on track to post a 16 percent monthly gain, biggest since May 2009. Brent's premium to its U.S. counterpart seesawed, but remained above $16 a barrel. Crude trading volumes were low, with U.S. crude 70 percent below its 30-day average at midday in New York and Brent 49 percent below its 30-day average. Low trading volumes also were believed to be a result of a snowstorm that hit the U.S. Northeast over the weekend, disrupting electric power and transportation lines. Front-month November U.S. gasoline and heating oil futures also fell on the day the contracts expire. U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent as enthusiasm over the agreement to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis waned and the spike in the dollar hurt commodity-related shares. .N Lack of detail on the euro zone's rescue plan had bank shares lead European shares lower, though the broader market posted a monthly gain, the first since April. .EU Investor focus this week includes a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting ending Wednesday, a Thursday European Central Bank press conference, and a G20 meeting mid-week, all coming after the latest effort to deal with the euro-zone debt crisis. Friday will bring the release of key U.S. October nonfarm payroll employment numbers. OPEC OCTOBER OUTPUT LOWER OPEC oil output fell for a second month in October as reduced supplies from Iraq, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Angola offset another rise in supply from Libya, according to a Reuters survey. The International Energy Agency does not want OPEC to move to cut output at the producer group's next meeting in December because the IEA expects demand for OPEC oil will grow by half a million barrels per day in 2012 than it October output, a top IEA official said. Abdullah al-Badri, OPEC's secretary-general, said on Monday that the crude oil market was balanced and there was no over supply, the Iranian Oil Ministry's website SHANA reported. (Additional reporting by Janet McGurty and Gene Ramos in New York, Ikuko Kurahone in London and Rebekah Kebede in Perth; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Sofina Mirza-Reid) Thanks, Bagya Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. 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