[image: Inline image 1] *S&P Technical Note: Looking for 3-5% US Pullback Soon*
Standard & Poor's yang masih memegang rekomendasi *modestly bullish* 12 bulan ke depan terhadap *US equity market*, khususnya S&P 500, merilis * update* strategi teknikal ekuitas terbarunya yang menegaskan ekspektasi *pullback 3-5%* dalam waktu dekat. Bersandar kepada volatilitas yang surut dan * divergence* antara Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) terhadap Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), di mana DJTA telah memulai secara konsisten fase *lower high* dan *lower low* di tengah formasi *triple tops*, mengindikasikan tekanan signfikan akan datang sewaktu-waktu. S&P: *Going back to the early 2000s, whenever we have had only two times in the trailing 20 days where the intraday volatility exceeded 1 percent during the down days, that was a low-water mark that typically indicated that sooner or later we would likely experience a decline of 5 percent or more. This has been fairly accurate.* * * *Everyone seems to remember that September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, but a lot of people forget that February is a close second. Actually, since 1970, September and February are the only two months in which the S&P 500 has recorded an average decline. It probably comes as no surprise then that whenever we do have a strong three-month period (November, December, and January), the market tends to take a breather and digest these gains. This time around it is likely to be any different. The market has risen more than 20 percent since the early October low and recently Technology has been one of the strongest performing groups.* * * *Dow Theory Sending 'Troubling Sign' for Stock Rally* ( http://www.cnbc.com/id/46413408) "The feeling is if you did not sell into the rally in January you might be lost for the year," LandColt's Schoenberger says. "You have so many headwinds that are preventing any type of robust rally in 2012 that the margin for error is so thin." -- '+' Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami.
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