[image: Inline image 1] Sejumlah pihak masih penasaran dan banyak bertanya apa gerangan yang terjadi pada Jumat kemarin hingga IHSG terkoreksi -1,6% menyentuh level terendah 7-minggu. * * *Reuters, 24 Peb.*: *Indonesia lost 1.6 percent to hit a near seven-week low after its central bank governor said inflation will rise above 5.5 percent this year if the government raises subsidised **fuel prices by more than 1,000 rupiah ($0.11) a litre.*
Sejauh mana pasar telah bereaksi terhadap menghangatnya pemotongan subsidi? Cukupkah? *NYSE, 24 Peb.*: Merespon penurunan IHSG Jumat, ETF saham-saham *big-caps* Indonesia yang diperdagangkan di NYSE, IDX <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IDX> dan EIDO<http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EIDO>masing-masing melemah -2,39% dan -3%. Yang menarik, volume perdagangan yang biasa saja dan tidak menunjukkan *spike*naik drastis, mengindikasikan *no conviction* terhadap tekanan harga. Bagaimana pandangan teknis riset pasar terhadap implikasi pemotongan subsidi yang mendorong kenaikan laju inflasi? *Market Status Indonesia* sudah kami *broadcast* *"market under pressure"* per 07 Peb. dan kembali diturunkan menjadi *"market in correction"* per 16 Peb. [image: Inline image 1] Masuk dalam *timeline* penyesuaian market status tersebut adalah rekomendasi *downgrade Indonesia Market* dari, di antaranya, Credit Suisse dan J.P. Morgan. Pemotongan subsidi BBM dan antisipasi inflasi sudah menjadi basis pertimbangan dalam penyesuaian *market status/downgrade*. Bukan hal baru. [image: Inline image 2] Jika demikian, bagaimana pasar bersiap menghadapi minggu-minggu selanjutnya? Maju atau mundur? *Highlights* dari J.P. Morgan yang kami *broadcast* sebelumnya sudah cukup jelas menjawab antisipasi pasar ke depan, apakah retreat yang menyertai naiknya *concerns* mengenai BBM dan inflasi ini merupakan *permanent exit signal* atau *buying opportunity*. J.P. Morgan, Indonesia Strategy, 17 Peb.: *Although underperformers YTD, Indonesian equities are still within 7% of their all-time high. We sense that underperformance and the subdued market response to policy action has led to investors evaluating risks, which in conjunction with the 20% P/E premium to the region may weigh on performance further. We see some similarities to conditions in 4Q10, when underperformance was followed by a correction, which ultimately proved to be a buying opportunity. Fund flows have turned negative in the last fortnight, and our in-house index of investor interest reinforces the possibility of an imminent correction.* Financial Times, 24 Peb.: *The historical record suggests investors should look forward to a cut in subsidies. Equities jumped during past petrol price hikes in 2005 and 2008 as investors were optimistic the government would use the savings for infrastructure-related spending, they say. This time, with the land reform in hand, that spending could even start to come through.* *Specifically, what to do in short term?* Bloomberg, 24 Peb.: *Investors will have to rebalance portfolios, selling stocks that are inflation- and interest-rate sensitive.* -- '+' Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami. ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. [email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
