*As seen on our tweet:* [image: Inline image 1]
*Ulasan Khusus Reuters: Indonesia Equity under Pressure* Tidak lama setelah penutupan perdagangan Rabu kemarin, Reuters merilis ulasan khusus mengenai dinamika dan potensi pergerakan saham Indonesia. Sebagai salah satu dari tiga media keuangan global utama bersama Bloomberg dan Financial Times, pemberitaan media finansial *mainstream* ini selalu meninggalkan dampak yang signfikan terhadap pasar yang diliput. Data analisis pemberitaan yang kami acu menunjukkan bahwa dalam kurun waktu 5-25 hari setelah pemberitaan dari media*mainstream* global yang dipandang "penting"/"material" akan diikuti dengan reaksi pasar yang signifikan. Terlebih jika pasar yang diliput merupakan pasar dengan likuiditas relatif terbatas (*shallow*). Argumentasi ilmiahnya sangat sederhana karena media-media besar tersebut menjadi referensi utama pengambilan keputusan para pelaku pasar global. Secara umum, Reuters menggaribawahi beberapa tendensi penting yang terjadi selama *year-to-date* 2012. Mulai dari *foreign outflow* dari dana kelolaan (*fund*) luar negeri yang berbasis ekuitas Indonesia, *bond attack* akhir-akhir ini yang juga mendorong*outflow* terhadap SBN yang dikonfirmasi dengan penurunan *demand* penerbitan baru, valuasi premium yang sudah disuarakan massal oleh banyak manajer investasi, dan potensi gejolak inflasi, semuanya melebur menjadi faktor negatif yang mendorong banayk manajer investasi internasional mengambil langkah (*move*) melepas posisi di Indonesia. Dalam penutupan perdagangan kemarin setelah sempat bermanuver pada awal Maret, pelaku pasar asing kembali memulai putaran baru *outflow* lokal dengan mencatat *net foreign sell* Rp287 miliar hanya di pasar reguler. Reuters, 07 Maret *Brief* *Analysis: Indonesia markets lag peers as country's glow fades* * * *Now, investors are shying away from its bonds and shares as the case for piling more money into Southeast Asia's biggest and fastest-growing economy has weakened.* *Inflation* * * *The government has raised its 2012 inflation forecast to 7 percent from 5.3 percent, according to a document seen by Reuters on Wednesday.* * * *Higher inflation threatens to hit domestic consumption -- the cornerstone around which most Indonesia-focused portfolios are constructed. That's why some funds feel relative valuations for Indonesian stocks versus the rest of Southeast Asia and other emerging markets are looking rich.* * * *'Already Expensive'* * * *"People see that valuations are already expensive amid uncertainties of expectations on the fuel price hike. We have reduced long positions," said Herbie Mohede, a fund manager in Jakarta at PT Samuel Aset Manajemen, which manages about $130 million in Indonesian stocks and bonds.* * * *Indonesia grew 6.5 percent in 2011, the fastest in 15 years. But if inflation this year is 7 percent, that would top growth, seen at 6.1 percent in a Reuters poll.* * * *"We expect growth to remain in trend, although a moderation to possibly below 6 percent is already due to happen because of the extended slowdown in the global economy," said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at OCBC in Singapore.* * * *Outflow* * * *The stock exchange has seen foreign inflows of $183 million in the year up to March 2, a fraction of the $2.65 billion for all of 2011, according to Reuters data. Also, Indonesian equity funds did not see net inflows in the two weeks ending February 24 despite emerging markets as a group receiving solid flows over the period, according to JPMorgan.* * * *The index is up just 3 percent this year compared with the 10.3 percent rise in Asian stocks outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS.* * * *Southeast Asia's top performer this year has been the small Vietnam market .VNI, up 26 percent.* * * *Jakarta's top consumption-driven companies have fared even worse, with Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.JK) flat so far this year and the main auto assembler Astra International (ASII.JK) down 6.6 percent.* *Fuel subsidies protect local consumers from rising global oil prices, but at the same time Morgan Stanley notes that Indonesia could see a deterioration in its fiscal balances if the government does not allow domestic fuel prices to rise.* * * *Given this difficult backdrop, Indonesian markets are likely to remain relative underperformer among emerging markets.* * * *The yield on benchmark 10-year Indonesian government bonds has risen about 80 basis points since falling to a record low around 5 percent on Feb 9.* * * *Rupiah Weakens* * * *The rupiah lost about 0.5 percent on Wednesday was off 1.2 percent this year, according to Thomson Reuters data, as it was hit by capital outflows.* * * *Considering the amount of money that has found its way into the country in recent years, the unwind could have some way to go, making Indonesia an underperformer in Asia for a while.* * * *U.S.-based money manager Cumberland Advisors, which invests in emerging markets primarily via exchange-traded funds, said in an emailed note to clients on February 27 that it had sold its positions in Indonesia while adding to Brazil and India and maintaining "significant" positions in China. * * * *Cumberland's move comes largely due to valuations.* * * *On a forward 12-month price-to-earnings basis, the MSCI Indonesia .MIID00000PID trades at a multiple of 13 times, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. That represents a 26 premium over the MSCI Emerging Markets index .MIEF00000PUS and a 36.4 percent premium to the MSCI China .MICN00000PHK index.* * * *"While some of the premium for Indonesian stocks is justified, current valuations do look to us to be too rich," said Bill Witherell, Cumberland's chief global economist. ($1 = 9170 rupiah)* Rilis lengkap saat ini sudah dapat diakses *online*: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/us-indonesia-economy-idUSTRE8260HP20120307 -- '+' Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami.
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