Sebagaimana muncul dalam *sub-heading* "*Background* Ekuitas Domestik Indonesia Pertengahan Maret" dalam *tweet* kami Senin, 19 Maret, yang berjudul: "Harum Energy (HRUM) *Roadshow Goes to Europe* Minggu Ini *by* Goldman Sachs" (http://tinyurl.com/6mwjcym), disebutkan:
"Meredanya euforia yang diimpor dari dinamika ekuitas AS dua minggu pertama
Maret, membantu mayoritas pelaku pasar untuk memetakan kembali secara lebih
jernih kekuatan dan kelemahan sektoral pasar. Berikut adalah *key
points* sepanjang
minggu lalu yang akan menjadi catatan tersendiri bagi IHSG mengakhiri bulan
Maret. *Key points* berikut akan dijelaskan lebih lanjut dalam *post*
individual
berikutnya."
Di antaranya:
"- Jumat, 16 Maret: Credit Suisse ("CS") mempertahankan peringkat
*Neutral* terhadap
ASII dengan target harga tidak berubah Rp65.890;"
Menyusul update CS tersebut, Selasa pagi ini, 20 Maret, J.P. Morgan ("JPM")
melansir *update* riset ASII terbaru pasca-ditetapkannya kebijakan kenaikan
down payment oleh Bank Indonesia di tengah ancaman inflasi akibat
pemangkasan subsidi BBM. JPM mempertahankan rekomendasi *Underweight* atau
Jual dengan target harga Rp61.000 (lihat *tweet* kami di bawah sebelum
pembukaan pasar pagi ini).
[image: Inline image 1]
(http://tinyurl.com/6tvtqfa)
JPM:
*Astra International: Underweight*
*Fresh Financing Curbs should move demand curves*
*New Norms being introduced to curb 2 & 4 wheeler loans are a negative for
Astra. We expect a short term spike in volumes (as financing is pushed
ahead of rules) to give way to a cyclical downturn by the end of 2Q. Astra is
still well liked by the street (just 1 UW rating of 23), and we see it
vulnerable to fresh downside risks on this development. UW.*
*Financing curbs earlier and tighter than expected:* New rules on
financing that will kick in on 15th June are negative for Astra – coming in
earlier and stricter than we expected. Down payment floors are being
introduced for passenger car (30% for Banks/25% for finance companies) and
2 wheeler (25% for banks/20% for finance companies) loans, while commercial
vehicles financing requires 20% paid upfront.
*Impact:* We believe the impact should be more on 2W (where initial
payments tend to be below 15% of value) than 4W's (where initial payments
are closer to 20%). We are revising our 2 & 4W sales for 2QFY12E slightly
higher, anticipating a credit related surge in volumes, but ultimately
expect that stricter financing norms should result in demand curves moving
lower, especially on 2 wheelers. 2 wheelers account for 16% of ASII net
profits, while 4 wheelers account for 27%.
*More downside seen:* Although underperforming YTD, Astra rallied 6%
since early March before correcting on the news on Friday. The stock
remains liked by consensus and we are the only UW rating (as per Bloomberg)
on the name. We think markets will look beyond short term volumes and
recommend selling, reiterating our Rp 61,000 PT.
*Risks:* With fuel prices likely to be raised and new rules on financing –
the outlook for volumes is uncertain. Revisions so far are minor. Our
forecasts of 912,000 cars (flat y/y) and 8.5m 2 wheelers (up 5% y/y) are
exposed to risks, and imply a degree of consumption resilience - that we
will calibrate watching the evolution of sales over the next few months.
--
'+'
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