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-----Original Message----- From: [email protected] Sender: [email protected] Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 06:27:31 To: <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR Bsk pullback..buy bsk or senin..jgn percaya analis...we are traders not analysts. Sent from BlackBerry® on 3 -----Original Message----- From: H4 <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2012 22:24:08 To: [email protected]<[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR Berikut analis dari Mansek Regards, H4 "Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan" Squeeze out the juice Unilever Indonesia made a shocking announcement yesterday, raising the royalty charges it pays its parent firm from 3.5% of revenue currently to a maximum of 8%. This is significantly higher than the 3% median charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia, and we cut our 2013-15F EPS forecasts by 6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5% respectively. We downgrade to SELL with reduced T/P of Rp19,000/share, implying 28x 2013F PER New royalty charges higher than the market. In our discussion with the company, it mentioned the change in royalty structure is to strengten UNVR’s position as the exclusive Indonesian arm of its parent company. But we are doubtful. We may see this as another way to maximize return of its Indonesia investment. The 8% new royalty charges is significantly higher than the 3% median charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia. Market perception may change and questioning UNVR legit premium of reputation. Interestingly, Unilever Global CEO made comment on the other occasion on its bearish european business outlook. A value dragger transaction. As we put the revision down in our calculation, we cut UNVR EPS for 13F, 14F and 15F by 6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5%, respectively. It suggests reduced dividend potential which has been the main attraction for the company. This is even assuming the same payout ratio, the EPS will be drastically reduced, so will the DPS. Uprising competition set backs price power. We are not optimistic on UNVR pricing power that will likely limit its ability to fully pass the higher charge to customers. Intensifying market competition backs our view, especially noting recent aggressive moves by major competitors such as P&G and Wings. P&G will have a new factory next year, while Wings has just made a big comeback with a new ad blast for its new So Klin detergent, the close competitor of UNVR’s main product Rinso.. SELL at TP Rp19,000/sh. With added concern above, higher equity risk is applied in UNVR and given single digit EPS growth over the next three years, a valuation de-rating is likely. We capped our PE 2013 at 28x to derive our new TP for UNVR of Rp19,000/share. SELL. Octavius Oky Prakarsa +6221 5296 9547 [email protected] Plaza Mandiri 28th floor Phone: +62 21 526 3445 Fax: +62 21 527 5711 >________________________________ > From: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> >To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> >Sent: Thursday, December 13, 2012 1:20 PM >Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR > > > >Hwahhh saya sudah ambil unvr pada penurunan kemarin, ternyata skrng turun lg. >:-( semoga lekas techreborn-nya. >________________________________ > >From: evita lusiani <[email protected]> >Sender: [email protected] >Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 13:00:00 +0800 (SGT) >To: <[email protected]> >ReplyTo: [email protected] >Subject: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR > > >UNVR stock fell in the morning after Unilever Indonesia announced change in >rate of royalty to be paid to Unilever NV (parent company). The changes will >be >done in stages from current royalty rate of ~3.5% sales to >estimated 5% sales in 2013, 6.5% sales in 2014, and 5% sales + >actual recovery cost up to 3% sales in 2015 > >--- Pada Kam, 13/12/12, Rio Suki <[email protected]> menulis: > > >>Dari: Rio Suki <[email protected]> >>Judul: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR >>Kepada: [email protected] >>Tanggal: Kamis, 13 Desember, 2012, 6:08 AM >> >> >> >>Unvr setiap 6 bulan bikin candle yg panjang banget. Misal jan12, june 12, and >>sekarang. Memang gayanya >> >>Salam >> >> >> >>________________________________ >> From: [email protected] <[email protected]>; >>To: [email protected] <[email protected]>; >>Subject: [saham] Saham UNVR >>Sent: Wed, Dec 12, 2012 4:22:12 PM >> >> >> >>Dear sahabat-sahabat kira-kira ada apa yah dengan saham UNVR hari ini? Mohon >>info dan ulasannya. Dilihat dari chartnya jarang sekali UNVR turun segitu >>dalam. >> >> > > >
