The topic has come up in a poly sci class I'm taking about international 
relations.  This article gives some suggestions that are worth 
considering.

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Democracies Feel a Chill Wind From U.S.

By Joseph Siegle

Published August 18 in the Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON -- Before Sept. 11, one concern about President Bush's 
veteran foreign policy team was whether it still clung to world views 
shaped by the Cold War. Could it adapt to emerging realities of the new 
era? The terrorist attacks on the U.S. seemed to make this debate 
irrelevant, starkly demonstrating the extent to which the world had 
changed. Indeed, within weeks, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell 
declared that we had now entered the post-post-Cold War era.

Lately, though, many in the administration seem to have reverted to the 
old Cold War rules, particularly in their support--or lack of support--for 
democracy abroad. This shift has serious implications for our national 
security. Consider the following:

* In the Middle East, Bush has called for Palestinian democracy. But this 
would be a peculiar kind of democracy, as the U.S. has already 
announced that Yasser Arafat should not be elected. Aside from the 
inconsistency of denying citizens the right to choose their own president, 
this policy risks undermining the credibility of any new Palestinian 
leader with the electorate, thereby diminishing the prospect of 
negotiating a meaningful peace settlement with Israel. More generally, 
it signals to the Arab world that we believe in democratic processes only 
so far as they increase U.S. leverage.

* In Pakistan, the U.S. has looked the other way while President Perve 
zMusharraf has systematically dismantled democratic institutions--first 
by extending his unelected stay in office by five years through a 
trumped-up referendum and now by altering the constitution so as to 
bar opposition leaders, subordinate the parliament to his authority and 
severely restrict media.

* In Afghanistan, more than 1,500 delegates representing Afghanistan's 
broad ethnic diversity gathered in June for the country's highly 
anticipated loya jirga to select the country's first post-Taliban leader. The 
assembly opened with a lively exchange of viewpoints, suggesting that 
participatory governance was perhaps not impossible in this war-torn 
nation. Nearly 1,200 delegates signed a petition nominating the popular 
former king, Mohammad Zaher Shah, as the leader best able to 
reconcile the ethnically fractious and broken country. Did the U.S. cheer 
this fledgling exercise in democracy?

Far from it. Fearing that the support for Zaher Shah would upset 
well-orchestrated plans to have Interim Prime Minister Hamid Karzai 
selected as president, U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay 
Khalilzad pressed the former king to renounce his interest in anything 
more than a figurehead role. Leaving nothing to chance, Khalilzad then 
announced the king's intentions two hours before Zaher Shah made his 
statement. In the end, loya jirga delegates left the proceedings 
disillusioned with their first brush with democracy.

* Closer to home, in April, the U.S. welcomed a coup attempt against 
democratically elected Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whose 
erratic behavior and anti-U.S rhetoric has angered the administration. 
U.S. officials, it turned out, had held a number of meetings with coup 
plotters before the short-lived rebellion. And once Chavez was ousted, 
the administration was quick to back the new government--despite 
having agreed to an Inter-American Democratic Charter seven months 
earlier that explicitly rejected coups as a legitimate means of 
succession.

* In Bolivia, during the run-up to the June elections there, U.S. 
Ambassador Manuel Rocha warned Bolivians that electing leftist 
firebrand Evo Morales would jeopardize U.S. aid. This admonition was 
echoed by Otto J. Reich, the U.S. assistant secretary of State for 
Western Hemisphere affairs. But the statements backfired. Responding 
with the independence typical of democratic citizens around the world, 
voters rallied behind Morales, sending his poll numbers sharply up and 
propelling him into a congressional runoff with Gonzalo Sanchez de 
Lozada, a U.S.-educated millionaire. Earlier this month, the Bolivian 
Congress selected Sanchez, with the assistance of heavy U.S. lobbying.

These examples demonstrate clearly that, as in the Cold War, U.S. 
foreign policy is not terribly concerned with fostering democratic 
institutions abroad. We seem to be making the same faulty assumption: 
that friendly autocrats offer better prospects for stability in the developing 
world. What we should have learned from our Cold War support to the 
shah in Iran, Sese Seko Mobutu in Zaire, Samuel Doe in Liberia, 
Mohamed Siad Barre in Somalia, a string of Latin American generals 
and others, however, is that this policy almost inevitably comes back to 
haunt us. These "stable dictatorships" are, in fact, rarely very stable. And 
when they collapse, frequently with considerable violence, the tempests 
they spawn can engulf whole regions. Meanwhile, the U.S. has earned 
the enmity of the repressed population.

The approach the U.S. has taken in these recent cases also seems to 
overlook how much the world has changed since the Cold War. 
According to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World survey, 
two-thirds of the states in the world today are democracies--nearly 
double the number in 1988. The extent to which the global landscape 
has democratized provides an enormous strategic advantage to the 
U.S. Democracies have a remarkable record of not going to war with 
one another. The more democracy expands around the world, therefore, 
the better are the prospects for a global democratic peace. 
Democracies also, by and large, do not breed terrorists. Recall that the 
Sept. 11 terrorists were all from nondemocratic countries. Democracies 
are vastly more committed to combating the proliferation of weapons of 
mass destruction. Finally, democracies perform better economically, 
growing 30% faster than nondemocracies, on average.

In this light, building a world of democracies is the overarching race we 
are in. The more steadfastly we promote democratization in the roughly 
46 remaining authoritarian regimes, the faster we can close the weak 
link in the global governance architecture. In a forthcoming book, former 
Ambassador Mark Palmer sets the target of a dictator-free world by 
2025. Recognizing the strategic value of this goal, our current policies 
should be judged by how well they are moving us toward that aim. Our 
opponents in this race--the emerging networks of terrorists and 
purveyors of weapons of mass destruction--are counting on the cover 
provided by remaining closed states to advance their destabilizing aims.

It is to our advantage to assiduously encourage democratic processes, 
even when it may seem inconvenient. We cannot expect liberal 
democracies to bloom overnight, but we should press for consistent 
improvement in the direction of greater openness, political participation 
and economic opportunity. The administration's decision last week to 
withhold new aid to Egypt in reaction to its fraudulent conviction of 
human rights advocate Saad Eddin Ibrahim is a step in the right 
direction. The world has become too small to ignore blatantly 
unaccountable leadership.

Undercutting democratic leaders with whom we disagree or propping 
up undemocratic regimes with which we share interests undermines 
the strategic objective of creating a global system of democratic states 
that adhere to norms of rule of law, religious tolerance and the 
delegitimization of terrorism.

We can win this race to define the future, but we can't run it the way we 
did during the Cold War.

Joseph Siegle is the Douglas Dillon fellow with the Council on Foreign 
Relations.

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