I have thought about that too. I wondered if Hollywood was disabled by fire or earthquake, would someone step in and fill the void with better movies or would it become a free for all situation where we get tons of B movies. (well actually E or F)
The big companies own so many other production companies out there that it would be impossible for people them to fail. Unlike banks. :) They will eventually be forced to change their business models a bit though. You can't keep making movies for $100 million or more and expect each one to be a winner just because you spent that kind of money on it. On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 12:18 PM, Martin Baxter <[email protected]>wrote: > > > Considering Wall Street's exemplary record with derivatives trading, one > would think... but no. This is H'Wood we speak of. Maybe if the industry > goes belly-up, movies might get better... > > Martin (spends a lot of time wishing for peppermint patties to rain from > the sky) > > "If all the world's a stage and all the people merely players, who in > bloody hell hired the director?" -- Charles L Grant > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQUxw9aUVik > > > > > ------------------------------ > To: [email protected] > From: [email protected] > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:29:00 +0000 > Subject: [scifinoir2] Movie futures: Trading soon on screen near you? > > > http://lahghok.notlong.com > > "Movie Futures:" Coming to a screen near you? > > The soon-to-be-released doomsday movie "2012" is looking like a box-office > winner, but not as big a hit as "Twilight 2." > > And as for "Pirate Radio," a tale of rogue disc jockeys flouting censorship > rules by broadcasting from a boat in the Atlantic, well, don't expect too > much in the way of booty. > > The early results are in, and movie futures, or at least their functional > equivalent, finally appear to be approaching the "Action!" stage. > > For years, would-be movie traders have been shouting "Lights!" and > "Camera!" But now two competing ventures for trading on the box-office > receipts of major motion pictures are vying for regulatory approval that > could come within months. > > Trading movie derivatives is pretty simple, based on the practice sessions > under way through the electronic Cantor Exchange. > > Dozens of new and coming releases trade at a price equaling $1 for every $1 > million in ticket sales during their first four weeks. Think "2012" will > make more than $153 million? Buy it. Think it's destined to flop? Sell. > > The contracts settle when the official box office is tallied, with gains > and losses based on the difference between the actual total and the amount > of the bet. The game moves on with new flicks: Cantor plans to list 50 or so > at a time. > > In his previous post heading the Clearing Corp. in Chicago, Richard Jaycobs > oversaw some of the many unlikely contracts that seem to abound in the > derivatives markets, from soybeans and oats to Treasury notes. > > Futures on hurricane damage and residential real estate prices trade at > Chicago's CME Group, and over the years some seemingly odd ducks have taken > off: Exchange-traded funds, viewed skeptically a decade ago, do a brisk > business today. > > Now president at Cantor, Jaycobs sees similar potential for the movie biz. > > "This is one of the few markets where people immediately get excited," he > said. "They all have opinions on movies." > > Cantor owns the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a similar concept invented more > than a decade ago but using simulated money. The Cantor Exchange would allow > traders to make bets ranging from very small to potentially very large. > > The rival Media Derivatives Inc. (MDEX) has even bigger plans. Each of its > contracts is larger size and available only through brokerage-firm accounts > rather than Cantor-style direct electronic access. So they, presumably, will > appeal to professional speculators and finance companies, which at the > moment lack risk-management tools specific to the movies. > > Hollywood financing deals, which traditionally are murky propositions, have > become especially difficult to obtain after the economic meltdown of 2008, > explained Rob Swagger, chief executive of Veriana Networks Inc., the > privately held media company that has petitioned to launch MDEX. > > "It really highlighted the need all the more," Swagger said. "Movies coming > out now were financed two or three years ago. The financing side of studios > needs more tools." > > So beyond enabling buffs to bet on their faves, these markets could reshape > how movies are made and promoted. > > If they work as designed, a distribution company could hedge the risk of > pumping marketing dollars into a potential hit, selling off some of the > upside while obtaining a little protection in case the movie bombs. > > Corn and soybean farmers know all about that kind of hedging, and global > financiers routinely rely on exchange-traded derivatives. > > Giant markets such as futures on Treasury securities dwarf the movie > business. Domestic receipts for the 200 to 225 major studio releases each > year gross about $10 billion. > > Both exchanges say they will confine their market to the biggest movies: > Sleepers like "Paranormal Activity" or "Slumdog Millionaire" wouldn't > qualify for listing, at least out of the box. > > But that's still big enough to trade -- if regulators OK it. > > Cantor's application has languished under a stay at the Commodity Futures > Trading Commission. As a practical matter, it would take the exchange > several months to get rolling once the stay is lifted. > > The MDEX just made it through an uneventful public comment period last > week, and the CFTC is slated to rule on its application by Dec. 24. > > That could help push along both projects. Watch for "Action!" early next > year. > Copyright © 2009, Chicago Tribune > > > > ------------------------------ > Bing brings you maps, menus, and reviews organized in one place. Try it > now.<http://www.bing.com/search?q=restaurants&form=MFESRP&publ=WLHMTAG&crea=TEXT_MFESRP_Local_MapsMenu_Resturants_1x1> > > > -- Bringing diversity to perversity for over 9 years! Mahogany at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mahogany_pleasures_of_darkness/
