Hi, Jason,

just wanted to clarify what I meant: Basically, I was trying to describe the 
overlap between the "rows" in this case. E.g., the number "0" would be 4 times 
in a training set across the different iterations. In k-fold and Stratified 
k-fold the the folds per iteration are always disjoint. The "sampling with 
replacement" would be called "bootstrapping."

Anyway, I am still curious about the multiplication, since you already have a 
large variance/bias ratio in k-fold cross validation in contrast to bootstrap.
Hopefully, the original author stumbles upon this Q & Q :)

Best,
Sebastian

> On Feb 6, 2015, at 4:33 AM, Jason Sanchez <jason.sanchez.m...@statefarm.com> 
> wrote:
> 
> My apologies. That was my first response to the mailing list and apparently I 
> copied the entire thing the first time. Hopefully this works.
> 
> Michael could be correct. In fact, I would be very interested in knowing the 
> name of the book he mentioned so I could learn more and anything else you 
> uncover!
> 
> In the interest of possibly adding something more to the discussion, 
> StratifiedKFold does not return overlapping folds (i.e. None of the 5 fold 
> created will have the same observations).
> 
> In: temp = StratifiedKFold(range(5)*10, 5).test_folds
>      temp
> Out: array([0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 
> 2,
>       2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,
>       4, 4, 4, 4])
> 
> In: for train, test in temp:
>       print train, test
> Out:
> [ 5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24] [0 1 2 3 4]
> [ 0  1  2  3  4 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24] [5 6 7 8 9]
> [ 0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24] [10 11 12 13 14]
> [ 0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 20 21 22 23 24] [15 16 17 18 19]
> [ 0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19] [20 21 22 23 24]
> 
> Although the train data is overlapping between splits, the accuracy score is 
> calculated on the test folds (which do not overlap). If the test folds did 
> have repeated observations, then it would be immediately obvious why a 
> correction method would be needed; however, if they do not overlap, I cannot 
> immediately understand why a correction method would be needed. I would 
> appreciate any insight anyone has on the subject.
> 
> Best,
> Jason
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Date: Fri, 6 Feb 2015 00:00:33 -0500
> From: Sebastian Raschka <se.rasc...@gmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [Scikit-learn-general] Calculating standard deviation    for
>       k-fold cross
> To: scikit-learn-general@lists.sourceforge.net
> Message-ID: <24cda88f-083e-4365-ae37-519f1f033...@gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
> 
> Thanks for all your answers!
> Jason, I think you could be right, but the author wrote in the line above the 
> code
> 
> "The mean score and the standard deviation of the score estimate are hence 
> given by:"
> 
> So I assume he literally meant standard deviation to show how the scores 
> varies rather than showing how confident the mean score is.
> 
> Michael's suggestion makes most sense to me right now, but I have to dig 
> deeper into the literature here...
> 
>>>> this is most probably due to the fact that 2 = sqrt(5 - 1), a correction
>>>> to variance reduction incurred by the overlapping nature of the folds. the
>>>> bootstrap book contains more info on how to calculate these for different
>>>> cases of splitting.
>>>> 
>>>> hth,
>>>> michael
> 
> Although we have to be a little bit careful with the "overlaps" here since it 
> can be confused with "with replacement" like in boosting. So basically. here 
> only the folds overlap across the different iterations, but the "sqrt(5 - 1)" 
> makes sense.
> 
> Thanks for all your help!
> 
> Best,
> Sebastian
> 
> 
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