Evolving Logic has developed and is continuing to work on tools for handling complex adaptive systems where no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times http://www.evolvinglogic.com/Learn/pdf/ToolsTechniques.pdf
Tools and Techniques for Developing Policies for Complex and Uncertain Systems Steven C. Bankes ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Senior Computer Scientist RAND Abstract: Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for CAS. This paper argues that policy analysis for CAS requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples provided of its application to policy analysis. Keywords: Complex adaptive systems (CAS), Decision Theory, Computational Experiments, Deep Uncertainty, Robustness, Adaptive Policies. ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
