On Wed, 2021-09-01 at 11:46 +1000, Telna via agora-business wrote:
> The below CFJ is 3925. I assign it to ais523.
>
> =
>
> If a Mad Scientist announces a random selection for a rule for a
> specified future week, and the ruleset doesn't change, e both can,
> and needs to, use that pick to fulfill eir weekly duties.
>
> Called by G.: Tue Aug 31 2021 14:43:34
>
> =
I judge CFJ 3925 FALSE.
Evidence:
{{{
Rule 2505/1 (Power=1)
Random Choices
When a Rule specifies that a random choice be made, then the
choice shall be made using whatever probability distribution among
the possible outcomes the Rule specifies, defaulting to a uniform
probability distribution.
The choice can be made using any physical or computational process
whose probability distribution among the possible outcomes is
reasonably close to that required by the Rules, and for which the
final choice is not trivially predictable by the selecting person
in advance. The selecting person SHOULD make the selection method
public, and SHOULD use a method for which the final probability
distribution can be readily confirmed.
}}}
Arguments:
{{{
The first issue is to establish the time at which the random selection
would/could be performed, under these assumptions. There are two strong
points of evidence that imply that in order for this sort of random
selection to work at all, it would need to be considered to have been
performed at the time of the weekly duty (as opposed to the time of the
dice roll or equivalent): a) its validity cannot be determined too far
in advance, due to the possibility that the ruleset changes; and b)
rule 2143 requires weekly duties to be performed "each week", implying
that performing them in advance doesn't fulfil the requirement to
perform them.
However, that would imply that the Mad Scientist would have information
about what the result will be, in advance of the time at which the
action was considered to be performed. This would violate the
requirement in rule 2505 (which is a hard requirement, not a SHOULD)
that the final choice is not trivially predictable by the selecting
person in advance.
In other words, there's no timing with which the rules would be
satisfied that this sort of randomization process is actually random;
they require the randomization to not "officially" occur until the week
of the duties, but they also require the Mad Scientist to not know what
the result will be in advance. So rolling the dice prior to the week in
question is not, by the rules, treated as a valid method of
randomization.
}}}
--
ais523