Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance (was: Re: 2-byte ASN policy)

[Brian Jones]

On Apr 8, 2016 7:26 PM, "David Farmer"  wrote:
>
> On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 2:24 PM, Scott Leibrand 
wrote:
>>
>> Thanks, John.
>>
>> It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving
2-byte ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient
for the time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who
may request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+
years down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the
recovered supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider
a waiting list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at
that time.
>>
>> Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?
>
>
> I agree the current procedures are meeting our needs and see no need for
immediate changes.   However, I would suggest the community get regular
reports on the inventory levels for 2-byte ASNs.  Adding a slide to one of
the many reports at the PPMs seems logical, but I'd leave it up to staff to
determine the best mechanism for such reporting.
>
> Assuming we stay on the current trajectory, I think we should look at
this again in about two years.  Hopefully, by then the rate of use for
2-byte ASNs will have slowed even more and any real operational threat from
running out of 2-byte ASNs will be greatly diminished if not non-existent.
If not we should still have sufficient time to plan for a soft landing.
>
>> Was there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start
the consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?
>>
>> -Scott
>
>
> One side issue that came up in this discussion that I think could be
worthy of follow up and/or further discussion.  The number of ASNs in the
routing table that are not properly registered, surprised me a little;
 350+ unregistered ASNs and 900+ prefixes associated with them, were the
easy numbers for me to find.  What I don't know, does that represent a
constant churn of short-term issues, where most of them come and go over a
few months.  Or, are most those chronic long-term issues that are not
getting cleaned up even after several years.  If it's the later, then maybe
we need to do something about that.

+1 - I agree if this is a long term issue we really should be doing
something about it. Good information Thanks David.

>
> Thanks
>
> --
> ===
> David Farmer   Email:far...@umn.edu
> Networking & Telecommunication Services
> Office of Information Technology
> University of Minnesota
> 2218 University Ave SEPhone: 612-626-0815
> Minneapolis, MN 55414-3029   Cell: 612-812-9952
> ===
>
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Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance (was: Re: 2-byte ASN policy)

[David Farmer]

On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 2:24 PM, Scott Leibrand 
wrote:

> Thanks, John.
>
> It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte
> ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the
> time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may
> request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years
> down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered
> supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting
> list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.
>
> Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?
>

I agree the current procedures are meeting our needs and see no need for
immediate changes.   However, I would suggest the community get regular
reports on the inventory levels for 2-byte ASNs.  Adding a slide to one of
the many reports at the PPMs seems logical, but I'd leave it up to staff to
determine the best mechanism for such reporting.

Assuming we stay on the current trajectory, I think we should look at this
again in about two years.  Hopefully, by then the rate of use for 2-byte
ASNs will have slowed even more and any real operational threat from
running out of 2-byte ASNs will be greatly diminished if not non-existent.
If not we should still have sufficient time to plan for a soft landing.

Was there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the
> consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?
>
> -Scott
>

One side issue that came up in this discussion that I think could be worthy
of follow up and/or further discussion.  The number of ASNs in the routing
table that are not properly registered, surprised me a little;  350+
unregistered ASNs and 900+ prefixes associated with them, were the easy
numbers for me to find.  What I don't know, does that represent a constant
churn of short-term issues, where most of them come and go over a few
months.  Or, are most those chronic long-term issues that are not getting
cleaned up even after several years.  If it's the later, then maybe we need
to do something about that.

Thanks

-- 
===
David Farmer   Email:far...@umn.edu
Networking & Telecommunication Services
Office of Information Technology
University of Minnesota
2218 University Ave SEPhone: 612-626-0815
Minneapolis, MN 55414-3029   Cell: 612-812-9952
===
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Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance (was: Re: 2-byte ASN policy)

[John Curran]

> On Apr 7, 2016, at 3:24 PM, Scott Leibrand  wrote:
> 
> Thanks, John.
> 
> It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte 
> ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the 
> time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may 
> request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years 
> down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered 
> supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting 
> list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.
> 
> Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?  Was 
> there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the 
> consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?

It was unclear if the present 2-byte AS number inventory would last sufficiently
long (i.e. past the point of operational impact) to avoid the need for a 
wait-list.

Having now reviewed the data, the need for wait-list is at present trajectory is
likely 5 years out.  It is up to the community whether it is worth working now 
to
address the potential situation that may occur at that time.

Thanks!
/John

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Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance (was: Re: 2-byte ASN policy)

[Scott Leibrand]

Thanks, John.

It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte
ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the
time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may
request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years
down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered
supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting
list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.

Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?  Was
there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the
consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?

-Scott

On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 11:44 AM, John Curran  wrote:

> Folks -
>
> Please forgive this omnibus email of information, but we've had sufficient
> individual
> questions for 2-byte ASN data that it simply made more sense to provide
> one full
> summary rather than reply to each question individually...
>
> ARIN continues to have classic, 2-byte, AS numbers in inventory. Over the
> last few
> years, we have received small blocks of them in our new delegations from
> the IANA,
> obtained them from customer returns of AS numbers, or through revocations
> of AS
> numbers due to non-payment of registration fees.
>
> Our last AS block delegation from IANA was on 29 April 2015.  We received
> 99 2-byte
> ASNs and 925 4-byte ASNs at that time, and do not expect to receive any
> additional
> 2-byte ASNs from the IANA in future delegations.  The 2-byte ASNs received
> from the
> IANA in 2015 were added to the inventory and placed on hold.  The reason
> that the
> 2-byte ASNs were put on hold is that was not responsible to issue from the
> dwindling
> quantity of these resources to parties that did not specifically request
> such while we
> were still receiving AS number requests specifically asking for 2-byte AS
> numbers.
>
> As of today, we currently have the following 2-byte ASNs in ARIN inventory:
>
>387 2-byte AS numbers on hold (most were routed at some point)
>535 2-byte AS numbers revoked
>133 2-byte AS numbers returned
>
>   = 1,055 2-byte AS numbers returned/revoked/held (Total)
>
> Customers requesting ASNs receive a 4-byte ASN by default.  If a request
> comes in
> that specifically requests a 2-byte ASN, we inform the customer that we
> have noted
> their special request and that we will accommodate it at the issuance
> phase of the
> ticket process if we have 2-byte ASN available at that time.
>
> Rate of issuance for 2-byte ASNs per month -
>
> 1/2015: 68
> 2/2015: 77
> 3/2015: 74
> 4/2015: 60
> 5/2015: 7
> 6/2015: 12
> 7/2015: 16
> 8/2015: 4
> 9/2015: 7
> 10/2015: 11
> 11/2015: 7
> 12/2015: 11
> 1/2016: 5
> 2/2016: 6
> 3/2016: 13
>
> A waiting list will only be applicable after depletion of the present
> 2-byte ASN inventory,
> hence the following general run-out estimates are provided for
> consideration:
>
>- If we release all of the 2-byte ASNs from hold and issue ASNs
> strictly from smallest
>  to largest, i.e. the practice prior to May 2015, it is likely that
> the current inventory of
>  2-byte ASN’s would last somewhere between 6 to 12 months.
>
>   -  If we continue the current approach (wherein 4-byte ASNs are issued
> by default and
>  2-byte ASNs are only issued upon special request), the current
> inventory of 2-byte
>  ASNs would appear to last for many years (5+ years at present rate).
>
> I hope the above information helps in your policy development efforts!
>
> Thank you,
> /John
>
> John Curran
> President and CEO
> American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)
>
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