Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

2002-11-10 Thread john hull
--- fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
how much of investing behavior is based on
self-assesment vs. rational expectations?

It seems like the difference between the return on
self-managed investments vs. the market, let's say,
should measure something meaningful like the value of
being an executive monkey vs. being a yoked monkey
(salmon.psy.plym.ac.uk/year1/stresbeh.htm and
www.betteryou.com/feature.htm, for example).

-jsh

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Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

2002-11-10 Thread fabio guillermo rojas

 I presume you mean irrationaly optimistic self-assesment?  I'd say quite 
 a lot.  But then comes the
 hard question:  what policy implications follow from this conclusion?  

Yes, irrat self-assesment is a good word for it. Robin, I know you are a
fan of taxing people for not using their abilities. How would you tax
people here to make them more efficiently invest or make them have more
rational self-assesments?

A key free market principle is that investors better know how to spend
money than the gov't. Should we be in the business of judging who is
irrational? 

Fabio







Re: Economics of Vet Med

2002-11-10 Thread Susan Hogarth
On Friday 08 November 2002 01:08 pm, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 I'd been under the impression that the federal government didn't regulate
 veterinary medicine as strictly as it regulates human medicine, but today
 my vet insisted that veterinary drugs have to go through the exact same
 process for FDA approval.  Does anyone know anything about the truth of the
 matter?

http://www.fda.gov/cvm/index/other/nadaappr.htm

has some info. I didn't read enough to discern if there is a big difference 
between pet animals and food animals, but that may be part of the FDA's 
justification for meddling (as if it needed one).

Wait - it includes both apparently:

http://www.fda.gov/cvm/index/memos/cvmm43.html

It also makes sense as there is so much overlap and people would simply shift 
to using veterinary drugs unless they were burdened with the same 
restrictions placed upon human drugs.

Is this your sly way of introducing your new kitten? :-)

- Susan




Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

2002-11-10 Thread Fred Foldvary
 A key free market principle is that investors better know how to spend
 money than the gov't.
 Fabio

That is not a free-market principle.  The free-market principle is that a
person should have control over his property.

There is an economic principle that a large centralized government lacks
the knowledge of how to best spend money for all, due to the decentralized
and dynamic nature of knowledge and preferences.  Another principle is that
a government with much power will be beset with groups seeking to turn that
power into their favor. That implies that free-market policies would work
better for spending, but it does not guarantee it.

Fred Foldvary

=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

2002-11-10 Thread Robin Hanson
Fred Foldvary wrote:


--- Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 

irrationaly optimistic self-assesment? 
   

It is true that many investors are overconfident of their abilities and
wrongly think they can beat the averages.
But why call this irrational?
It seems to me that the concept of rationality makes sense when it is
applied to human action, but it is not meaningful when applied to beliefs. 
Action is rational or not, based on the actor's knowledge.

But we are talking about a context where beliefs get translated into 
actions in a pretty straightforward way.
People buy and sell stuff when they believe doing so will raise their 
expected (risk-corrected) return of
their portfolio.  

... If false beliefs are
irrational, then almost everything we do is irrational, and there is no
economics.  For example, most folks don't have a correct knowledge of
nutrition; their food choices are thus based on ignorance.  

There is a difference between ignorance and irrationality - that is the 
central point of this literature
really.  





Fw: True costs of oil and gas (3 articles)

2002-11-10 Thread Alypius Skinner
Higher energy prices are needed now to signal the real
 scarcity to come. Without higher prices we will not invest in the
 alternative energy technologies needed for a smooth transition to the
 post-petroleum age. Without higher prices we will not conserve the
 fossil energy needed to manufacture those alternative technologies.
 Without higher prices, argues petroleum analyst Richard Duncan, the
 remaining life expectancy of industrial society may well be less than
 40 years!


 http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981117/bbm.html

 Tuesday November 17, 3:23 pm Eastern Time, 1998

 Real cost of U.S. gasoline is $15.14 per gallon, report says

 By Tom Doggett

 WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - So you think you're getting a good
 deal on a tank of gasoline these days? Not so, if all the oil
 industry tax subsidies received from the federal and state
 governments and other costs that went into producing that gallon of
 gasoline were included in the pump price.

 Such external costs push the price of gasoline as high as $15.14 a
 gallon, according to a new report released Tuesday by the
 International Center for Technology Assessment.

 ``In reality, the external costs of using our cars are much more
 higher than we may realize,'' the Washington-based research group
 said in its report.

 The report examined more than 40 separate cost factors the group said
 it associated with gasoline production but aren't reflected by the
 price of gasoline at the pump.

 These external costs total up to $1.69 trillion per year, according
 to the report.

 The group points out that the federal government provides the oil
 industry with tax breaks to help U.S. companies compete with
 international producers, so gasoline remains cheap for American
 consumers.

 The Department of Energy is forecasting that the national price for
 regular unleaded gasoline will average $1.02 during the current
 quarter, the lowest price on record for any three-month period when
 adjusted for inflation.

 Tax subsidies don't end at the federal level, as the group said most
 state income taxes are based on oil firms' lower federal tax bills,
 which result in companies paying $123 million to $323 million less in
 state taxes.

 In addition to tax breaks, the federal government provides up to
 $114.6 billion in subsidies annually that support the extraction,
 production and use of petroleum, such as research and development and
 export financing.

 The federal government also spends up to $1.6 billion yearly on
 regulatory oversight, pollution cleanup and liability costs connected
 to the oil industry, the group said.

 In addition, U.S. Defense Department spending allocated to safeguard
 the world's petroleum resources totals $55 billion to $96 billion a
 year, according to the group.


 Copyright © 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication
 or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without
 the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for
 any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in
 reliance thereon. See our Important Disclaimers and Legal
 Information. Questions or Comments?

 --

 http://www.icta.org/projects/trans/rlprexsm.htm

 The International Center for Technology Assessment

 The Real Price Of Gas

 Executive Summary

 This report by the International Center for Technology Assessment
 (CTA) identifies and quantifies the many external costs of using
 motor vehicles and the internal combustion engine that are not
 reflected in the retail price Americans pay for gasoline. These
 are costs that consumers pay indirectly by way of increased taxes,
 insurance costs, and retail prices in other sectors.

 The report divides the external costs of gasoline usage into five
 primary areas: (1) Tax Subsidization of the Oil Industry; (2)
 Government Program Subsidies; (3) Protection Costs Involved in Oil
 Shipment and Motor Vehicle Services; (4) Environmental, Health,
 and Social Costs of Gasoline Usage; and (5) Other Important
 Externalities of Motor Vehicle Use. Together, these external costs
 total $558.7 billion to $1.69 trillion per year, which, when added
 to the retail price of gasoline, result in a per gallon price of
 $5.60 to $15.14.

 TAX SUBSIDIES

 The federal government provides the oil industry with numerous tax
 breaks designed to ensure that domestic companies can compete with
 international producers and that gasoline remains cheap for
 American consumers. Federal tax breaks that directly benefit oil
 companies include: the Percentage Depletion Allowance (a subsidy
 of $784 million to $1 billion per year), the Nonconventional Fuel
 Production Credit ($769 to $900 million), immediate expensing of
 exploration and development costs ($200 to $255 million), the
 Enhanced Oil Recovery Credit ($26.3 to $100 million), foreign tax
 credits ($1.11 to $3.4 billion), foreign income deferrals ($183 to
 $318 million), and