Re: Greider

2003-07-22 Thread Bryan Caplan
Robert A. Book wrote:
Greider also has interesting material on the Democrats' connection to 
the S&L industry.  I'd never heard about any of this, but he seems to 
have his facts straight on this point.

Wrong hasn't been so much fun in years!
--


Bryan, if he's wrong about the material you know a lot about, what
makes you think he has his facts straight on the subjects you know
less about?
Shouldn't his obvious errors on cost/benefit, risk analysis, and
corporate accountability reduce the prior probability (to you) that
he's right on anything?
Good question.  Sure, errors in one area raise the probability of errors 
in other areas.  But he's a journalist.  I expect him to be weak on 
analytics.  The 5 W's of who-what-when-where-why are what he's trained 
to get right.


--Robert Book





--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
   Department of Economics  George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Infancy conforms to nobody: all conform to it, so that
 one babe commonly makes four or five out of the adults
 who prattle and play to it."
 --Ralph Waldo Emerson, "Self-Reliance"




Re: Greider

2003-07-21 Thread Robert A. Book
> Greider also has interesting material on the Democrats' connection to 
> the S&L industry.  I'd never heard about any of this, but he seems to 
> have his facts straight on this point.
> 
> Wrong hasn't been so much fun in years!
> -- 


Bryan, if he's wrong about the material you know a lot about, what
makes you think he has his facts straight on the subjects you know
less about?

Shouldn't his obvious errors on cost/benefit, risk analysis, and
corporate accountability reduce the prior probability (to you) that
he's right on anything?


--Robert Book




Greider

2003-07-21 Thread Bryan Caplan
William Greider's *Who Will Tell the People?* is an amazingly 
interesting work, if only for coming up with dozens of original fallacies.

Here is one of my favorites.  Greider lambastes the entirely 
cost-benefit analysis/risk analysis industries, private and government, 
as a gigantic smokescreen for corporate murder.  If a private individual 
fires a gun into a crowd of 100,000 people and kills one, he goes to 
jail.  If a polluter kills a statistical life, however, it's business as 
usual.  Greider basically claims that if ordinary law were applied to 
polluters and such, they would be shut down completely.

The big problem with Greider's analysis is that it's 180 degrees wrong. 
 Under normal murder law, no one with cancer could ever prove beyond a 
reasonable doubt that *their* cancer was caused by pollution in general, 
much less any particular corporate suspect.  Indeed, they could never 
prove it with a preponderence of the evidence.

I'm not a legal historian, but I would bet that before modern C/B and 
risk analysis, corporations were never tried for murder for precisely 
this reason.

Another fun feature of Greider: He inadvertently provides an efficiency 
defense of rent-seeking.  He is outraged that corporations fight against 
various stupid populist measures like Superfund.  His analysis makes me 
suspect that I've judged the lobbying industry too harshly.  If his 
story is true, lobbyists effectively mitigate, delay, and prevent 
countless foolish policies.

Greider also has interesting material on the Democrats' connection to 
the S&L industry.  I'd never heard about any of this, but he seems to 
have his facts straight on this point.

Wrong hasn't been so much fun in years!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
   Department of Economics  George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Infancy conforms to nobody: all conform to it, so that
 one babe commonly makes four or five out of the adults
 who prattle and play to it."
 --Ralph Waldo Emerson, "Self-Reliance"