It could partially be a function of the holiday season.
More movies tend to be released around holidays anyway (also around July 4,
for example), given that people are more likely to see a movie during these
times (since they have the day off).
Not only are people more apt to go because they have time off, there's
probably a significant seasonal effect. People seem to prefer seeing
Christmas-themed movies around Christmas and action blockbuster movies in
the summer.
Taking off from this, what kind of movies win the Best Picture award?
Generally it's serious type movies about feelings, issues, and whatnot, as
opposed to Spider-Man or The Hulk. If there's a seasonal advantage (maybe
people like action in the summer when they can go out and do things?) for
non-serious movies in the summer, it might make sense to release the Oscar
candidates in the winter season (and if the holidays are a time for family
and whatnot, there may be some advantage to selling a serious movie at
that time as well).
It'd be interesting to see how things work for somewhere like India
(Bollywood), which I think has its big awards in June.
-Original Message-
From: ArmChair List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Bryan
Caplan
Sent: Wednesday, December 31, 2003 2:07 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Oscar Political Business Cycle
The Political Business Cycle story has not fared well empirically in recent
years (though Kevin Grier has done interesting work on Mexico's PBC). But
it seems overwhelming in the Oscars. It seems like roughly half of the big
nominees get released in December. What gives? Is there any way to explain
this other than Academy voters' amnesia?
I guess there is a small intertemporal benefit - if you could win Best
Picture of 2004 with a January 2004 release, or Best Picture of 2003 with a
December 2003 release, the present value of the latter prize would
presumably be higher. But can that one year's interest (presumably adjusted
for a lower probability of winning due to tighter deadlines) explain the
December lump?
