Re: guess the correlation

2004-12-16 Thread Dimitriy V. Masterov
I bet it close to zero. If income and education are correlated in the
way that I suspect they are, Kerry's support is high at the tails of the
income distribution, which means that it's a U-shaped relationship. Since
correlation measures a linear relationship, it's going to be zero.
However, this may not be if you don't weight the data by population.


Dimitriy V. Masterov

Center for Social Program Evaluation
1155 East 60th St. Room 038
Chicago, IL 60637


Re: guess the correlation

2004-12-16 Thread fabio guillermo rojas
My guess is positive because California and New York tend to have a lot of
high income people. Around 0.4? Fabio

On Thu, 16 Dec 2004, Bryan Caplan wrote:

> I've calculated the correlation coefficient between per-capita state
> income and the percent of the vote Kerry got.  Guesses?  I'll post the
> answer in an hour.
> --
>  Prof. Bryan Caplan
> Department of Economics  George Mason University
>  http://www.bcaplan.com  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> "But we must deplore and, so far as possible, overcome the evils of
>  habitual newspaper reading.  These evils are, chiefly, three: first,
>  the waste of much time and mental energy in reading unimportant news
>  and opinions, and premature, untrue, or imperfect accounts of
>  important matters; second, the awakening of prejudices and the
>  enkindling of passions through the partisan bias or commercial greed
>  of newspaper managers; third, the loading of the mind with cheap
>  literature and the development of an aversion for books and
>  sustained thought."
>
>--Delos Wilcox, "The American Newspaper" (1900)
>


Re: guess the correlation

2004-12-16 Thread Anton Sherwood
Bryan Caplan wrote:
I've calculated the correlation coefficient between per-capita state
income and the percent of the vote Kerry got.  Guesses?
Well we already know it's positive: http://ogre.nu/wp/index.php?p=1513
--
Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/


Re: guess the correlation

2004-12-16 Thread AdmrlLocke
In a message dated 12/16/04 2:21:38 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

>I've calculated the correlation coefficient between per-capita state
>income and the percent of the vote Kerry got.  Guesses?  I'll post the
>answer in an hour.
>--
> Prof. Bryan Caplan


I'd guess a positive coeficient--the higher the state's per capita income,
the higher the percentage Kerry won.

David Levenstam


guess the correlation

2004-12-16 Thread Bryan Caplan
I've calculated the correlation coefficient between per-capita state
income and the percent of the vote Kerry got.  Guesses?  I'll post the
answer in an hour.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
   Department of Economics  George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
   "But we must deplore and, so far as possible, overcome the evils of
habitual newspaper reading.  These evils are, chiefly, three: first,
the waste of much time and mental energy in reading unimportant news
and opinions, and premature, untrue, or imperfect accounts of
important matters; second, the awakening of prejudices and the
enkindling of passions through the partisan bias or commercial greed
of newspaper managers; third, the loading of the mind with cheap
literature and the development of an aversion for books and
sustained thought."
  --Delos Wilcox, "The American Newspaper" (1900)