Not that I necessarily agree with it, but I thought I'd post this
rejoinder.
I'm always a fan of let's think about who's leaking this story
analysis of
news coverage, and David Frum* has one which I don't necessarily
beleive,
but is nevertheless thought-provoking:
http://www.nationalreview.com/frum/diary041904.asp
APR. 19, 2004: CONSPIRACY THEORY
After 24 hours, its agreed that the biggest news to emerge from Bob
Woodwards book is the allegation that the Saudis promised to
manipulate
the price of oil to help President Bushs re-election. John Kerry had
this
to say yesterday in Florida:
If what Bob Woodward reports is true that gas supplies and prices in
America are tied to the American election, then tied to a secret White
House deal that is outrageous and unacceptable.
But is it true?
Ask yourself this: Who could have been Woodwards source for this
claim?
Only one person: the canny Prince Bandar, Saudi Arabias ambassador to
the
United States and a frequent purveyor of titillating items to selected
journalists.
Next question: If such a deal existed, what motive could Prince Bandar
have
for revealing it? The revelation could only hurt Bush, the candidate
Bandar
was allegedly trying to help.
Logical next thought: If, however, Bandar wanted to hurt Bush, then the
revelation makes a great deal of sense.
But why would Bandar want to hurt Bush? Dont a hundred conspiracy
books
tell us that the Bush family are thralls of Saudi oil money? Perhaps
the
Saudis dont think so. Perhaps they see President Bushs Middle East
policy
as a threat to their dominance and even survival. What could after all
be a
worse nightmare for Saudi Arabia than a Western-oriented, pluralistic
Iraq
pumping all the oil it can sell?
In other words, if what Bob Woodward reports is true, then the Saudis
are
meddling to defeat Bush, not elect him.
A response to this from Tapped (http://www.prospect.org/weblog/):
FRUM'S JUJITSU. One of the great mysteries of recent years is how the
Bush administration's strongest backers managed also to be fierce
critics of Saudi Arabia, a country whose close ties to the President
are the stuff of legend. Bob Woodward's allegation in Plan of Attack
that the administration struck a deal with Saudi ambassador Prince
Bandar to keep oil prices high and then drop them just in time for the
2004 election threatened to take cognitive dissonance to new heights.
There are a number of ways in which this story reflects very poorly on
the president, but the clear implication that the Saudi government
wants to see Bush re-elected should certainly cause a neoconservative
or two to re-think his attitude toward the administration. David Frum,
author of the fiercely anti-Saudi An End to Evil, but also a former
member of the administration, is having none of it:
Ask yourself this: Who could have been Woodward's source for this
claim? Only one person: the canny Prince Bandar, Saudi Arabia's
ambassador to the United States and a frequent purveyor of titillating
items to selected journalists.
Next question: If such a deal existed, what motive could Prince Bandar
have for revealing it? The revelation could only hurt Bush, the
candidate Bandar was allegedly trying to help.
Logical next thought: If, however, Bandar wanted to hurt Bush, then
the revelation makes a great deal of sense.
But why would Bandar want to hurt Bush? Don't a hundred conspiracy
books tell us that the Bush family are thralls of Saudi oil money?
Perhaps the Saudis don't think so. Perhaps they see President Bush's
Middle East policy as a threat to their dominance and even survival.
What could after all be a worse nightmare for Saudi Arabia than a
Western-oriented, pluralistic Iraq pumping all the oil it can sell?
In other words, if what Bob Woodward reports is true, then the Saudis
are meddling to defeat Bush, not elect him.
Cheney's razor -- a philosophical rule that the most complex
explanation of an unknown phenomenon is probably correct -- rears its
ugly head once again! This could be right, but it's a mighty big
stretch. Given the decades-long closeness between the Bush family and
the House of Saud and the President's very kind treatment of Saudi
Arabia throughout his first term in office -- it makes a lot more sense
to assume that things here are exactly as they appear: Bandar was
trying to help Bush because Bandar likes Bush.
One also has to question the premise that the second Gulf War has
created some kind of nightmare for the Saudi government. Saddam Hussein
posed no direct threat to the United States, but he was a threat to
Saudi Arabia and there's no reason whatsoever to think that, as Frum
implies, Iraq is going to bust-up the OPEC cartel. Certainly the new
geopolitical configuration in the Middle East creates an opportunity
for America to put some distance between ourselves and the Saudis, but
that's only going to be meaningful if
