On Sunday 2005-02-20 20:36, d.brin wrote:
4/ So, how are our relations with Iran now that it is the dominant
regional power, with a sympathetic Shiite government in a weak and
chaotic neighboring Iraq, its former enemy?
Iran, facing mounting U.S. pressure over its nuclear program,
promised yesterday a scorching hell for any aggressor as tens of
thousands marched to mark the 26th anniversary of its Islamic
revolution.
A month after President Bush warned that the United States hasn't
ruled out military action against Iran, President Mohammed Khatami
responded before a crowd gathered on a snowy square in Tehran. ...
Will this nation allow the feet of an aggressor to touch this land?
Khatami asked at the crowd. If, God forbid, it happens, Iran will
turn into a scorching hell for the aggressors.
His statements drew chants of Death to America! from the crowd.
Khatami is widely recognized as a leader of a moderate faction in
Iran. Indeed, Khatami himself indicated in his speech that the talk
of a possible U.S. invasion was pushing him into a united camp with
Iran's hard-liners against foreign meddling.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002177190_iran11.html
Remember Khatami? He was our great hope among the liberal reformers
in Iran. Now he says he is being driven by the US into the arms of
the hardliners. Our invasion of Iraq has basically killed the reform
movement in Iran, with hardliners dominating elections since then.
I do not believe that the USA's invasion of Iraq has killed Iran's reform
movement.
The opposition WANTED to contest hardliners in Iran's last national
parliamentary elections, but were prevented from doing so because in Iran the
judiciary is the foremost branch of government. The constitution specifies
that Islamic legal scholars constitute the judiciary. Furthermore, per the
Iranian constitution, judicial authorities must vet potential candidates for
elected administrative or legislative office.
American foreign policy had little or nothing to do with the so-called defeat
of the opposition. Opposition candidates were simply judged insufficiently
orthodox and not allowed to run. This was EXACTLY the intent of the
constitution which sought to implement Khomeni's revolutionary theory of
government by Islamic jurisprudents.
Nevertheless, American warmongering has certainly put any Iranian reform
movement into a holding pattern. Reform is not dead, but it is torpid. Who
cares about reform when your nation's mortal enemy is at the gates? Reform
will remain torpid until Washington's cold war brinkmanship pulls back
significantly.
Furthermore, I have no doubt that if America's defense and foreign policy team
decide to invade Iran, the Iranians (who unlike the Iraqis indisputably see
themselves as a single nation, baring some small minorities like Kurds) will
oppose invasion and occupation with a united front. Iran could make Iraq
look like a stroll in a suburban park.
I am not certain that Iran is planning to test a nuclear device. If I were
Iranian, I would definitely want the option to get a bomb quick. I would
want fissionable material on hand with lots of bomb components. I would even
want prototypes ready to fuel, arm, and test. Even if Iran had a liberal
regime and good relations with Washington, any sane flag-rank Iranian officer
would STILL insist that Washington provide nuclear guarantees AND would want
to have the failsafe of weapons grade fissionable material stored in
quantity.
Pakistan has the bomb and could become insanely anti-Shia any day.
The Russian sphere of control borders Iran. Russia has the bomb. Russia has
previously occupied parts of Iran.
The Arab Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia, are irrationally anti-Shia.
They are a military threat, though no match for Iran's conventional forces.
Note, however, that Wahhabi zeal has sometimes resulted in the defeat of
superior military forces. If relations with Washington were to change, Saudi
Arabia or a consortium of Gulf States might be forced to develop a nuclear
capability.
Iraq is currently occupied by a hostile superpower's forces. Though it looks
like a friendly regime will soon come to power, powers corresponding to what
is today called Iraq have often fought wars with Iran.
Turkey is a close ally of a hostile superpower. Turkey is not favorably
disposed to Shias, minorities, or theocracies. Over the centuries Iran and
Turkey have fought wars. At present, however, relations are stable.
The United States, an economic and military superpower is actively hostile
toward Iran. Iran and the USA have effectively been in a coldwar since the
1979 revolution. Worse, the current administration is looking to further
isolate Iran, ramping up coldwar style pressure, and has shown a real
willingness to use full military options even when they strike external
observers as both expensive and less than
