Re: Nutty Conspiracist [was: [L3] RE: Bird flu movie]
Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Deborah Harrell quoted: They found that a genetic mutation that gives its carriers protection against the HIV virus became relatively common among white Europeans about 700 years ago paranoid So the HIV virus was designed by White People to kill Black People! THEY had convinced me that it had been fnord designed by Hetero People to kill Gay People. Time to chance Conspiracy Theories! /paranoid totally ridiculous Only in retaliation for BPs throwing pale persons out of Africa, thus forcing them to marry each other, and produce offspring ever more susceptible to the too-powerful yet life-giving rays of the sun; the result is those dour Norwegians who live in darkness nearly half the year, leading to a high suicide rate. or possibly ludicrous Debbi Metastasizing Melanoma Maru __ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Nutty Conspiracist [was: [L3] RE: Bird flu movie]
Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip or possibly ludicrous eyeroll I forgot the wicked smiley!;-} Debbi Bird Flu Is A Ploy Of The Gubru Maru __ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Nutty Conspiracist [was: [L3] RE: Bird flu movie]
Deborah Harrell wrote: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip or possibly ludicrous eyeroll I forgot the wicked smiley!;-} Debbi Bird Flu Is A Ploy Of The Gubru Maru That would have hit the monitor if I'd been drinking anything here. One of the most amusing things I've read today. (Maybe THE most amusing thing.) Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Nutty Conspiracist [was: [L3] RE: Bird flu movie]
Deborah Harrell quoted: They found that a genetic mutation that gives its carriers protection against the HIV virus became relatively common among white Europeans about 700 years ago paranoid So the HIV virus was designed by White People to kill Black People! THEY had convinced me that it had been fnord designed by Hetero People to kill Gay People. Time to chance Conspiracy Theories! /paranoid Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Nutty Conspiracist [was: [L3] RE: Bird flu movie]
They found that a genetic mutation that gives its carriers protection against the HIV virus became relatively common among white Europeans about 700 years ago paranoid So the HIV virus was designed by White People to kill Black People! THEY had convinced me that it had been fnord designed by Hetero People to kill Gay People. Time to chance Conspiracy Theories! /paranoid Don't make fun of this...I know that you are one of them... ...I noticed the suspicous space before the word designed. If you know where to look... - Klaus ;-) _ This mail sent using V-webmail - http://www.v-webmail.orgg ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Bird flu movie
-Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Deborah Harrell Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2006 4:13 PM To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Bird flu movie The acting was bad, the plot had some major holes, some of the science was more-than-iffy - but it was interesting to watch, and if it made people think ahead just a little bit, that might actually be helpful: http://www.webmd.com/content/article/121/114487.htm ...ABC's Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America is fiction. It presents a worst-of-worst-cases scenario of what might happen in a pandemic of deadly, highly contagious bird flu. Could what happens in the movie really take place? Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for global health at the Council of Foreign Relations, was a script consultant for the movie (at her request, her name does not appear in the movie credits). She's seen an advance screening. The film is very grim. But I don't think it is sensationalistic, Garrett tells WebMD. I didn't think they exaggerated, but it is a worst-case scenario. A virulent, highly contagious flu comes to America. There is no viable vaccine on tap. The drugs have limited or no efficacy. There are shortages of essential supplies and goods that become acute later in the epidemic... Debbi who has ~ 2 weeks worth of food on-hand, and could probably hold out for 4 if necessary (but would likely end up working at a temp hospital if a true pandemic occurred) I didn't see the movie but did see the ABC nightline on the facts. I was also in this debate before, and have looked up some facts. They had some of the real life counterparts of people in the movie (the secretary of HHS and the governor of Virginia, as well as CDC scientists on Nightline. The most criticized part of the show was the end, when the second wave of the flu killed 100%. The CDC scientist said while nothing was impossible in biology, this was very very unlikely. That makes sense. If such things happened once every 100,000 years, the odds on humans still being here would be rather low. If the 1918 flu epidemic is the template for the next one, then the death rates are vastly overstated. In some countries, the death rate approached 10%. But, in the US it was less than 1%...0.6% IIRC. I'd argue that the state of medicine and nutrition had a lot to do with the difference. Further, we'd probably lose fewer people now than we did then for the same type of pandemic because: 1) We have better nutrition and general health. Few are starving in the US. 2) We don't have rampant TB. If you look at the TB deaths in the years following the flu, they dropped noticeably. One argument was that the flu resulted in an early harvest of TB deaths of people who appeared fairly healthy but had TB. 3) We are much better prepared to fight bacterial pneumonia, etc. than we were before 1920. 4) We do have some Tamiflu.by 2008 it will be enough to dose an expected 25% infection rate. Given this, it's probable that the death rate from a pandemic that's the equivalent of the Spanish flu would be lower. I'd guess to the 0.25% level or so. It's harder to speculate on worse flu's, but if the exponential tail rule for pandemics works like the symptoms rule (30% get sick, 4% get very sick but only 0.6% died), then a death rate of 1% would require a once in a millennium flu or worse. It doesn't mean that it won't be a problem. Our standards for governmental response to a crisis is much higher than it was in the early 20th century, and I'd expect the response to fall short. Even if we have a US full of New Orleans, we should not expect a 1% death rate. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
[L3] RE: Bird flu movie
Oh, bloody h- I just lost my entire reply to this - now attempting to reconstruct it. mutters dire imprecations...all those sites! All that time! Dan Minette [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Behalf Of Deborah Harrell The acting was bad, the plot had some major holes, some of the science was more-than-iffy - but it was interesting to watch, and if it made people think ahead just a little bit, that might actually be helpful: http://www.webmd.com/content/article/121/114487.htm I didn't see the movie but did see the ABC nightline on the facts. I was also in this debate before, and have looked up some facts. They had some of the real life counterparts of people in the movie (the secretary of HHS and the governor of Virginia, as well as CDC scientists on Nightline. The most criticized part of the show was the end, when the second wave of the flu killed 100%. The CDC scientist said while nothing was impossible in biology, this was very very unlikely. That makes sense. Even Ebola isn't that deadly. If such things happened once every 100,000 years, the odds on humans still being here would be rather low. But that may be what happened to cheetahs - see * below (and darnit I was right about the virus being ~12K years ago still very vexed). Also see **, which I may have posted before, about a theory that a viral infection in the Scandanavian area may have conferred resistance to the Black Death (which may not have just been plague bacillus), and perhaps to HIV. (I was incorrect about that being 10K years ago; it's more like 2500-5K years ago.) If the 1918 flu epidemic is the template for the next one, then the death rates are vastly overstated. In some countries, the death rate approached 10%. But, in the US it was less than 1%...0.6% IIRC. I'd argue that the state of medicine and nutrition had a lot to do with the difference. From Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu ...Global mortality rate from the flu is estimated at 2.5% 5% of the human population, with 20% of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. It spread across the world killing 25 million in six months; some estimates put the total killed at over twice that number, possibly even 100 million. An estimated 17 million died in India, about 5% of India's population at the time. In the Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it. In US, about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000 died. In Britain 200,000 died; in France more than 400,000. The death rate was especially high for indigenous peoples; entire villages perished in Alaska and southern Africa. In the Fiji Islands, 14% of population died during only two weeks, and in Western Samoa 22%. In Japan, 257,363 deaths were attributed to influenza by July 1919, giving an estimated 0.425% mortality rate... From http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ ...The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. [I saw 12 years on another site.] The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg)... ...With one-quarter of the US and one-fifth of the world infected with the influenza, it was impossible to escape from the illness. Even President Woodrow Wilson suffered from the flu in early 1919 while negotiating the crucial treaty of Versailles to end the World War (Tice)... From the CDC [detailed article; has links to most of the footnoted articles, also lots of graphs]: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm ...An estimated one third of the world's population (or #8776;500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 19181919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were 2.5%, compared to 0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at #8776;50 million (57) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7). The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 19181919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (excepting human infections from avian viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus, including drifted H1N1 viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 virus, updated by subsequently incorporated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface proteins, making the 1918 virus indeed the mother of all pandemics...With the appearance
RE: Bird flu vaccine contract
Behalf Of Deborah Harrell Government studies conducted at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) concluded that two 90-microgram doses of the vaccine were needed to produce an effective immune response in humans. That dose is more than 12 times higher than the single 15-microgram dose usually needed for protection from seasonal flu. The NIH is conducting more studies to determine how much the vaccine can be diluted while retaining its effectiveness, or what amount of other vaccine ingredients used to boost effectiveness will be required. Until the studies arecomplete, company officials won't know how many vaccine doses will be available or what the final price per dose will be... Or what the side effects will be. I know that I always feel like hell the day after getting a flu shot and my arm hurts for a few days. What would a 12x higher level dose do? - jmh ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: One Flu over the Cookoo's Nest
At 10:57 PM 20/10/04 -0700, Doug wrote: They could, of course, salvage the whole lot by treating it with radiation. Keith Think the shortage of flu vaccine is just bad luck? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18795-2004Oct8.html Britain: U.S. Told Of Vaccine Shortage LONDON, Oct. 8 -- British health officials said Friday that their American counterparts were informed in mid-September that problems at a drug manufacturing plant in northwest England could disrupt influenza vaccine supplies to the United States. And to fully understand how the vaccine problem was yet another leadership failure by the Bush administration check the conclusion and reccomendations starting on page 22 of this GAO report (PDF)http://aging.senate.gov/events/hr67gao.pdf compiled in 2001 and entitled FLU VACCINE: Supply Problems Heighten Need to Ensure Access for High-Risk People. -- Doug Time he flu the coop. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: One Flu over the Cookoo's Nest
At 10:57 PM 10/20/2004 -0700 Doug Pensinger wrote: Think the shortage of flu vaccine is just bad luck? Lately many liberals have suggested that the US government should use its buying power to try and drive down prescription drug prices and lower profits.I think that it is worth considering what consequences this same policy has wrought in the market for flu vaccines - the government buys most of the nation's vaccines, and many flu vaccine producers have since proceeded to get out of the flu vaccine business, which left (pardon the pun) all of our eggs in one basket. Its worth noting that the UK and their nationalized health care system is in the same boat that we are. JDG ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: One Flu over the Cookoo's Nest
Behalf Of JDG Lately many liberals have suggested that the US government should use its buying power to try and drive down prescription drug prices and lower profits.I think that it is worth considering what consequences this same policy has wrought in the market for flu vaccines - the government buys most of the nation's vaccines, and many flu vaccine producers have since proceeded to get out of the flu vaccine business, which left (pardon the pun) all of our eggs in one basket. I don't know. In another thread, there is a discussion of whether NASA is in trouble because they are relying on a limited number of suppliers. That certainly isn't because of cost reduction issues at NASA, I don't believe. I think this has more to do with the second part of your email: the government buys most of the vaccine. Wouldn't that make for limited suppliers as there isn't much competition for buyers, regardless of price? - jmh ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: One Flu over the Cookoo's Nest
On 21 Oct 2004, at 1:39 pm, JDG wrote: At 10:57 PM 10/20/2004 -0700 Doug Pensinger wrote: Think the shortage of flu vaccine is just bad luck? Lately many liberals have suggested that the US government should use its buying power to try and drive down prescription drug prices and lower profits.I think that it is worth considering what consequences this same policy has wrought in the market for flu vaccines - the government buys most of the nation's vaccines, and many flu vaccine producers have since proceeded to get out of the flu vaccine business, which left (pardon the pun) all of our eggs in one basket. Its worth noting that the UK and their nationalized health care system is in the same boat that we are. According to the linked story the UK Health Service had already arranged for an additional 1.2 million doses from some of its five other suppliers by the end of the month, with an additional 1 million due to arrive by mid-November. What boat are you talking about? -- William T Goodall Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Web : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. -- Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: One Flu over the Cookoo's Nest
At 08:24 AM 10/21/2004 -0500 Horn, John wrote: I don't know. In another thread, there is a discussion of whether NASA is in trouble because they are relying on a limited number of suppliers. That certainly isn't because of cost reduction issues at NASA, I don't believe. I think this has more to do with the second part of your email: the government buys most of the vaccine. Wouldn't that make for limited suppliers as there isn't much competition for buyers, regardless of price? Not necessarily. There is no reason for the government to buy all of its supply from one place, as it does not appear that flu vaccine production has irresistable economies of scale. I think this blog does a good analysis of what is going on here: http://cafehayek.typepad.com/hayek/2004/10/the_cause_of_th.html JDG ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: The Flu!
--- Gary Nunn [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: John wrote In all of the news reports, they keep talking about the number of people who have died from the flu so far and how they are all children. As a parent of small children of my own, does any one know what age those kids are? How concerned should we be about this? My Kids are 9 and 2.5, and I had both of them vaccinated last week. My 9 year old daughter has mild asthma and is considered high risk. My 2 year old is supposed to get a second shot in 30 days, but I suspect that they will be out of vaccination by then. I looked over the news reports and the CDC website, and although they are somewhat vague, it appears that it is primarily the high risk children that have the highest mortality rate. By high risk I mean kids with severe asthma, suppressed immunity, less than 24 months old, etc. Although, there have been reports of perfectly healthy 10 year olds kids that didn't survive, but I really think that occurrence is very rare. Colorado has had 9 documented flu-related child deaths, and 1 or 2 more are still being investigated; ages ranged from 22 months to ~15yo. Almost half of these children had no known underlying illnesses, while the others had various chronic conditions such as asthma, diabetes and cancer. One complication that seems to be more of a problem this year is secondary infection (pneumonia, mostly) with *community-acquired* methicillin-resistant _Staphalococcus aureus_[MRSA]; this used to be primarily a hospital-acquired infection, so those without hospital exposure weren't at risk. MRSA infections have to be treated with different antibiotics than most primary care docs would ordinarily use for bronchitis or pneumonia -- they're more expensive, and some have to be given IV rather than orally. Here is one article with links: http://www.9news.com/storyfull.aspx?storyid=21811 (Because of CO's high rate of flu related deaths, most of the local stations have put up doctor-assisted sites/info for the community.) Children, especially the very young, frequently have atypical symptoms as well: rather than a high fever with severe chills and body aches, they might have hoarse breathing, tummy ache with diarrhea, or a bad headache. They also seem to get dehydrated more easily (in a baby or toddler, a parent would notice decreased need for diaper changes). Since children have smaller airways than adults, and a smaller body volume, they do not tolerate clogged airways or dehydration as well (well, it's a little more complex than that, with children's immature immune systems a big factor, but you get the picture). For a healthy child over 5yo, an alternative to the shot is the nasally-administered vaccine (it's called FluMist); this is an attenuated live virus rather than a killed virus as in the shot, so cannot be given to a child with a compromised immune system. It is also more expensive than the regular shot. Of course, this year, there is a slight mismatch between the viral strains used to prepare the vaccine and one of the actual variety that's going around: the Fujian variant. Still, most experts think that getting the vaccine will result in a less-severe infection even with the mismatch. This is the CDC site, with multiple links and FAQs, including info on the nasal vaccine and maps outlining cases across the country (I think most states have set up websites on the flu, but you can see what's been reported to the CDC here): http://www.cdc.gov/flu/ To add to the confusion, there is apparently at least one other respiratory virus going around that can be confused with the flu; there are laboratory tests that can identify flu infection in less than an hour (with reasonable accuracy for such rapidity, but there can be up to 30% false-negative rate). Here is the CDC site on diagnosis: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/labdiagnosis.htm For reference, the flu and its complications kill from 20,000 to 36,000 people in the US every year; periodically a pandemic will sweep the world killing millions. (Frex the 1917-8 pandemic, which might have been a fusion virus rather than the pure human influenza virus; I've seen research leaning towards an avian or swine flu pass-through. When humans and animals live in close proximity under poor sanitation hygeine, some viruses 'jump' from one species to another: if an individual, human or animal, has an active infection with more than one influenza virus, there can be some mixing of genes, and the resultant virus might be even more virulent or communicable than the standard varieties. Of course, most such fusions probably are _less_ hardy, and unable to pass through one species into another, which is one of the reasons we don't have more pandemics. This is why the WHO and CDC pounced so hard on the SARS infection; many epidimiologists think we are past due for a bad pandemic.) I couldn't find any hard data on national child mortality from influenza
RE: The Flu!
From CNN QuickNews today: The number of states severely hit by the flu has more than doubled since last week and the illness is hitting the western part of the nation particularly hard, federal health officials reported Thursday. CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta shares tips to keep you from catching the flu. Wipe down your keyboard and your phone, he suggests. Ninety-nine percent of germs will be taken care of by this. Just to put it in perspective, your keyboard and your phone have 400 times the number of germs as a toilet seat. Dr. Sanjay Gupta is a medical correspondent for CNN and appears on CNN's American Morning with the latest medical news, health tips, and more to help viewers understand the world of medicine and how it relates to them. -- Ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: The Flu!
John wrote In all of the news reports, they keep talking about the number of people who have died from the flu so far and how they are all children. As a parent of small children of my own, does any one know what age those kids are? How concerned should we be about this? My Kids are 9 and 2.5, and I had both of them vaccinated last week. My 9 year old daughter has mild asthma and is considered high risk. My 2 year old is supposed to get a second shot in 30 days, but I suspect that they will be out of vaccination by then. I looked over the news reports and the CDC website, and although they are somewhat vague, it appears that it is primarily the high risk children that have the highest mortality rate. By high risk I mean kids with severe asthma, suppressed immunity, less than 24 months old, etc. Although, there have been reports of perfectly healthy 10 year olds kids that didn't survive, but I really think that occurrence is very rare. There are a couple of schools that have been closed here in Ohio due to the flu, and I expect the 2 week Christmas break will slow down the rate of infection somewhat since kids won't be clustered together in classrooms. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The Flu!
At 07:31 PM 12/11/2003 -0600 Horn, John wrote: In all of the news reports, they keep talking about the number of people who have died from the flu so far and how they are all children. As a parent of small children of my own, does any one know what age those kids are? How concerned should we be about this? A 20-year-old college-age student was the first flu death of the year in Massachusetts today. JDG - Who has been trying to get his shot for a month now, but hasn't managed to stay healthy for two straight days in order to do it. :-( ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
