Singularity, was Re: This Is Spinal Ta-, er, Metallica
At 09:22 AM 2/28/04, Steve Sloan II wrote: Travis Edmunds wrote: Do you mean (A) singualarity? If so, I saw one the other night on TNG. If not...then could you explain? I probably am familiar with what you speak of, but it's not exactly rolling of my tongue. The Singularity Robert's talking about is metaphorically like a black hole-type singularity, because you can't see in from outside. The idea is that computing technology (and other technologies as well) has been increasing in speed and power exponentially. Assuming that exponential curve continues at the same rate, computers should have the raw processing power of a human brain in about 30 years or so, give or take a year or two. Moore's Law suggests that 18 months later, they'll be equivalent to 2 brains, then 18 months later, 4 brains, then 8 brains, 16 brains, etc. In the course of a few years, that effect should change society so much and so rapidly that people living before it happens can't even comprehend it, much less predict its effects with any reliability. Vernor Vinge is the main author who promoted the idea in science fiction, and serious stories since then have had to react to it. They either have to explain why it didn't happen in the particular far future society they're writing about Perhaps because some working in the AI field were predicting the same thing thirty years ago, and like controlled fusion as a commercially feasible power source, thirty years later it is still thirty years away? HAL Turned Seven Last Month And I Didn't Send A Card Maru -- Ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Singularity, was Re: This Is Spinal Ta-, er, Metallica
From: Ronn!Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED] At 09:22 AM 2/28/04, Steve Sloan II wrote: Travis Edmunds wrote: Do you mean (A) singualarity? If so, I saw one the other night on TNG. If not...then could you explain? I probably am familiar with what you speak of, but it's not exactly rolling of my tongue. The Singularity Robert's talking about is metaphorically like a black hole-type singularity, because you can't see in from outside. The idea is that computing technology (and other technologies as well) has been increasing in speed and power exponentially. Assuming that exponential curve continues at the same rate, computers should have the raw processing power of a human brain in about 30 years or so, give or take a year or two. Moore's Law suggests that 18 months later, they'll be equivalent to 2 brains, then 18 months later, 4 brains, then 8 brains, 16 brains, etc. In the course of a few years, that effect should change society so much and so rapidly that people living before it happens can't even comprehend it, much less predict its effects with any reliability. Vernor Vinge is the main author who promoted the idea in science fiction, and serious stories since then have had to react to it. They either have to explain why it didn't happen in the particular far future society they're writing about Perhaps because some working in the AI field were predicting the same thing thirty years ago, and like controlled fusion as a commercially feasible power source, thirty years later it is still thirty years away? The difference is that computer processor speed / # of transistors, RAM Size and Hard-Disk storage have all _continued_ doubling every 18 or so months, and will continue to do so. It's actually slightly faster than that (there are two exponents, the rate of doubling is also increasing if more slowly). Apparently the top Chess-AI Programs increase in Chess Rating at about 50 points per year. Only a few more years where a human can win or draw a computer before being completely bypassed. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Singularity, was Re: This Is Spinal Ta-, er, Metallica
The Fool said: The difference is that computer processor speed / # of transistors, RAM Size and Hard-Disk storage have all _continued_ doubling every 18 or so months, and will continue to do so. It's actually slightly faster than that (there are two exponents, the rate of doubling is also increasing if more slowly). Fusion has advanced similarly. The key value, the triple product of plasma density, temperature and confinement time has increased by a factor of 10,000 in the last thirty years (its increase has been exponential for much of that period). It's now estimated to be within a factor of six of the value required for a commercial fusion reactor, which means it really might be close now. On the other hand, the price of fusion research is increasing and the intermediate step between reactors like JET and a pilot commercial plant might be too expensive just yet. Rich ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
