For those of us who are especially fond of the Eastern Towhee, this will be of particular interest. Regi
____________ “There is a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future on the planet.” Hans-Otto Partner, co-chair, 2022 IPCC working group Begin forwarded message: > From: The Cottonwood Post <comment-re...@wordpress.com> > Date: May 31, 2022 at 1:12:19 AM EDT > To: rltcay...@gmail.com > Subject: [New post] Eastern Towhee: Can the white-eyed subspecies survive > even 1.5C climate change? > Reply-To: The Cottonwood Post > <comment+e3mod154-axgxt-hy_y4o...@comment.wordpress.com> > > > The Cottonwood Post > Eastern Towhee: Can the white-eyed subspecies survive even 1.5C climate > change? > > Stephen Carr Hampton > May 30 > > Pale-eyed and red-eyed forms diverged approximately 18,000 years ago. > Photo by Melissa James/Macauley Library. > > eBird abundance map for Eastern Towhee. It is resident in the southeast, but > expands north in summer. > The Eastern Towhee, a bird of scrub and thickets, is a common resident in the > southeast United States. One subspecies migrates north in summer. > > They are a prime example of a species that is considered "Least Concern" by > the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but "High Risk" in > National Audubon's assessment of birds under climate change. In their 3.0 C > scenario, they predict it would lose 83% of its current breeding range, while > gaining only 23%. > > > This is National Audubon's projection for the Eastern Towhee's breeding range > under just a 1.5C scenario. This would spell extinction for the white-eyed > birds of Florida and the deep South. > > Their winter range is not anticipated to change much. > These projections are consistent with recent literature showing poleward > shifts of species ranges-- of the northern edge of their range, of the > southern edge, and of their range's geographic center. The predictions for > Eastern Towhee are among the most dramatic. > > Recent research also suggests that non-migratory and short-distance migrants > are more adaptable to climate change than are long-distance migrants, and > more able to shift their ranges. Indeed, we are already seeing that with > Eastern Towhee. The Audubon projections appear to be in progress. > > Based on Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data, the Eastern Towhee breeding > population in Florida has declined over 50% since the late 1990s. The timing > of this is consistent with worldwide ecological shifts which began in the > mid-1980s. > > > The white-eyed subspecies appears to be already in trouble. eBirders in > Florida in May and June are encountering the species half as often as they > were just six years earlier. > > > eBird data from Florida, focusing on frequency of lists reporting the species > during the May-June period, shows that the maximum frequency has fallen from > 18.3% in 2015 to 8.6% in 2021. > Not all range shifts are due to climate. As a scrub specialist, the Eastern > Towhee prefers habitat that is in the act of regrowth, such as after a fire > or being cleared. But they don't want a forest either. To quote the Birds of > the World species account for Eastern Towhee: "As farmland is abandoned, > successional changes produce suitable midseral habitats that towhees favor, > and their numbers increase. But, successional time is against towhees, and > their numbers decrease as seres age." That may be the explanation for the > Georgia data (orange dots), which show a decline in the late 60s and early > 70s, possibly due to forest growth or land clearance for development, and > then a leveling off. > > As the climate warms, many species are expanding north and/or declining in > the southern part of their range. But these need not happen simultaneously. > Opportunities for suitable habitat may open doors in the north, and doors may > close in the south, at different times. There is evidence of Eastern Towhee > expansion in Minnesota, but look at the vertical axis; it does not compare > with the losses in Florida. > > > In Florida, the white-eyed subspecies faces extinction based on National > Audubon's 1.5C scenario. They appear to have declined dramatically in the > past two decades. > > > Photo from National Audubon website that provides range change projections > under 1.5C, 2.0C, and 3.0C scenarios. > For more on climate change impacts on birds, I invite you to join the Birds > and Climate Change Facebook group. > > Comment > Like > You can also reply to this email to leave a comment. > Unsubscribe to no longer receive posts from The Cottonwood Post. > Change your email settings at manage subscriptions. > Trouble clicking? Copy and paste this URL into your browser: > http://thecottonwoodpost.net/2022/05/30/eastern-towhee-can-the-white-eyed-subspecies-survive-even-1-5c-climate-change/ > Powered by WordPress.com > -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
