Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[JW]

[reviving the long forgotten Feb 8 post
http://lists.openmoko.org/pipermail/community/2008-February/013184.html]

So, with Freerunner now quite close to release what are the results?
You can see the details at http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/

1) How many people voted/participated : 700 with 660 indicating intent to
buy

2) What is the median vote for the number of Freerunners that will be bought
in the first 2 months after launch?   The answer is 4000 and has been
amazingly stable at that number from nearly the start

3) Did this "bit of fun" qualify as a true "wisdom of crowds" answer.
Well, maybe.The criteria for a true "wisdom of crowds" scenario include
the guesses all being independent (see wikipedia). Due to the excellent
website that Tim Kersten made those interested enough could go in and see
the results of others guesses BEFORE making their own guess.This may
have polluted the answer somewhat but I still reckon most people will have
voted before looking at the other guesses...

4) Will Openmoko/Trisoft/US distrib tell us the real answer in due course?
Wait and see

JW
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A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Michael Shiloh]

A while back, Hans Loeblich asked how many GTA01s were made, and how 
quickly they sold. Here is the answer from Steve Mosher, our VP of 
marketing:


"We wanted to limit distribution to serious development engineers. The
total build over the life of the product was less than 5000. By any
measure that's a large engineering staff. We sold to serious developers.
We sold out everything  in 3 days. And then we suffered and had to wait
until production caught up with demand. Production never did match
demand, and even today with Freerunner around the corner we have people
ordering Neo1973 and we are sold out.

"So, if you own a Neo1973 you can count yourself as a early early
adopter. You own a piece of history. Freerunner, is a piece of the future.

Michael



 Original Message ----
Subject: Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2008 20:11:30 -0600
From: Hans L <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: List for OpenMoko community discussion

To: List for OpenMoko community discussion 
References: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Does anyone know how many GTA01 devices were produced?  As far as I
know all the ones they produced were sold.  I wonder how long it took
before they had enough orders to sell all the devices(I understand
there were some production/distribution delays even after orders were
taken).  If anyone knows this info, I think it might help get a
ballpark idea of the amount of interest.

-Hans Loeblich


On Sun, Feb 10, 2008 at 11:52 PM, Jeremiah Flerchinger
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:


 A scatter plot would be cool with some more sales to a given month period
that could be guessed.  At least additional guesses for sales in first 6

and

12 months would be interesting.

 Tim Kersten wrote:

The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here:
http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/

 It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email of
this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I can

add

this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any authentication. Do you
think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course appreciated. I can't
make any promises about finding time to make improvements to it though, as
I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)

 Cheers,
 --tim


On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>
> Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>
> > As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
shot.--tim
>
> nice one tim!
>
>
>
> JW
>
>
>
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Jeremiah Flerchinger]

I believe I read the initial GTA01 batch of 1000 was announced for sale 
in early July 2007 and was sold out early August 2007.


Hans L wrote:

Does anyone know how many GTA01 devices were produced?  As far as I
know all the ones they produced were sold.  I wonder how long it took
before they had enough orders to sell all the devices(I understand
there were some production/distribution delays even after orders were
taken).  If anyone knows this info, I think it might help get a
ballpark idea of the amount of interest.

-Hans Loeblich


On Sun, Feb 10, 2008 at 11:52 PM, Jeremiah Flerchinger
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
  

 A scatter plot would be cool with some more sales to a given month period
that could be guessed.  At least additional guesses for sales in first 6 and
12 months would be interesting.

 Tim Kersten wrote:

The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here:
http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/

 It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email of
this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I can add
this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any authentication. Do you
think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course appreciated. I can't
make any promises about finding time to make improvements to it though, as
I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)

 Cheers,
 --tim


On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:



Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

  

As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a


shot.--tim


nice one tim!



JW



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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Hans L]

Does anyone know how many GTA01 devices were produced?  As far as I
know all the ones they produced were sold.  I wonder how long it took
before they had enough orders to sell all the devices(I understand
there were some production/distribution delays even after orders were
taken).  If anyone knows this info, I think it might help get a
ballpark idea of the amount of interest.

-Hans Loeblich


On Sun, Feb 10, 2008 at 11:52 PM, Jeremiah Flerchinger
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>  A scatter plot would be cool with some more sales to a given month period
> that could be guessed.  At least additional guesses for sales in first 6 and
> 12 months would be interesting.
>
>  Tim Kersten wrote:
>
> The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here:
> http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/
>
>  It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email of
> this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I can add
> this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any authentication. Do you
> think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course appreciated. I can't
> make any promises about finding time to make improvements to it though, as
> I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)
>
>  Cheers,
>  --tim
>
>
> On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >
> > Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
> >
> > > As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
> shot.--tim
> >
> > nice one tim!
> >
> >
> >
> > JW
> >
> >
> >
> > ___
> > OpenMoko community mailing list
> > community@lists.openmoko.org
> > http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
> >
>
>  
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Tim Kersten]

> Nice page Tim :-)
> Did you put a link to it on the main FreeRunner Wiki Page?
>
> Bren
>

Thanks Bren! Appreciate the feedback :-)

I did place a link on the wiki. I figured it was most appropriate here:
http://wiki.openmoko.org/wiki/Buying_Interest_List under the subheading
"Fun".
Any thoughts, as always, are most welcome.

--tim
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[JW]

> http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/It has the features that were mentioned in the
original opening email of this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the
moment, but I can add this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any
authentication. Do you think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course
appreciated. I can't make any promises about finding time to make improvements
to it though, as I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly
do it Cheers,--tim

Nice page Tim :-)
Did you put a link to it on the main FreeRunner Wiki Page?

Bren





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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Tim Kersten]

On Mon, Feb 11, 2008 at 5:28 AM, Jeremiah Flerchinger <
[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> can you change my guess (Flerchjj) to 3000?
>

Done.


On Mon, Feb 11, 2008 at 5:52 AM, Jeremiah Flerchinger <
[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>  A scatter plot would be cool with some more sales to a given month period
> that could be guessed.  At least additional guesses for sales in first 6 and
> 12 months would be interesting.
>

That could be interesting alright. :-)


>
> Tim Kersten wrote:
>
> The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here:
> http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/
>
> It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email of
> this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I can add
> this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any authentication. Do you
> think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course appreciated. I can't
> make any promises about finding time to make improvements to it though, as
> I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)
>
> Cheers,
> --tim
>
> On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
> >
> > > As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
> > shot.--tim
> >
> >  nice one tim!
> >
> > JW
> >
> >
> >
> > ___
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Jeremiah Flerchinger]

A scatter plot would be cool with some more sales to a given month 
period that could be guessed.  At least additional guesses for sales in 
first 6 and 12 months would be interesting.


Tim Kersten wrote:
The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here: 
http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/


It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email 
of this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I 
can add this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any 
authentication. Do you think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of 
course appreciated. I can't make any promises about finding time to 
make improvements to it though, as I'm fairly busy with college. If I 
find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)


Cheers,
--tim

On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
> wrote:


Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
shot.--tim

nice one tim!

JW



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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Jeremiah Flerchinger]

can you change my guess (Flerchjj) to 3000?

Tim Kersten wrote:
The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here: 
http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/


It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email 
of this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I 
can add this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any 
authentication. Do you think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of 
course appreciated. I can't make any promises about finding time to 
make improvements to it though, as I'm fairly busy with college. If I 
find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)


Cheers,
--tim

On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
> wrote:


Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
shot.--tim

nice one tim!

JW



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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Tim Kersten]

The site is up. It's mostly untested. See it here:
http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/

It has the features that were mentioned in the original opening email of
this thread. It's not possible to edit entries at the moment, but I can add
this if it's needed. I figured it doesn't need any authentication. Do you
think a captcha is necessary? Feedback is of course appreciated. I can't
make any promises about finding time to make improvements to it though, as
I'm fairly busy with college. If I find/have time I'll gladly do it :-)

Cheers,
--tim

On Sat, Feb 9, 2008 at 5:13 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>
> > As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a
> shot.--tim
>
> nice one tim!
>
> JW
>
>
>
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[JW]

Tim Kersten <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a shot.--tim

nice one tim!

JW



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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Tim Kersten]

As there doesn't seem to be any takers, I'll offer to give it a shot.

--tim

On Fri, Feb 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM, JW <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Peter Trapp <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>
> [snip]
>
> >
> > Beside of some suggestions you made, a similar webpage already exist:
> >
> > http://wiki.openmoko.org/wiki/Buying_Interest_List
> >
> > Have fun improving it :)
> >
> > cheers
> > - homyx
> >
>
> hi peter
> yes i was already aware of this page - i am already in the list!
> but hard to put a script in a wiki page?
> beyond me anyway!
>
> anyone else offers to do this (see first post)?
>
> JW
>
>
>
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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[JW]

Peter Trapp <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

[snip]

> 
> Beside of some suggestions you made, a similar webpage already exist:
> 
> http://wiki.openmoko.org/wiki/Buying_Interest_List
> 
> Have fun improving it :)
> 
> cheers
> - homyx
> 

hi peter
yes i was already aware of this page - i am already in the list!
but hard to put a script in a wiki page?
beyond me anyway!

anyone else offers to do this (see first post)?

JW




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Re: A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[Peter Trapp]

On Freitag, 8. Februar 2008, JW wrote:
[snip]
> So now I think we should apply this to helping team OpenMoko to decide how
> many FreeRunner's they should manufacture in their first run *based on how
> many people they think will buy a Freerunner in the first two months from
> launch*.
>
> Rather than have a ridiculous number of answers in this thread we need
> someone in the OpenMoko community to whip up a little webpage script which
> allows you to
>
> * enter your nick
> * click yes/no if you will buy yourself
> * enter your guess for no. sold in first two months
> * press button to see results (min/max/ave/no.of votes/no.of intended
> purchasers)
>
> Anyone offering to make the webpage?
>

Beside of some suggestions you made, a similar webpage already exist:

http://wiki.openmoko.org/wiki/Buying_Interest_List

Have fun improving it :)

cheers
- homyx

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A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds

[JW]

Hi Openmoko community

Ask everyone at a country fair to guess the weight of an ox and the average will
be closer to the actual value than even the experts. this is one example of
the wisdom of crowds :-) 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

So now I think we should apply this to helping team OpenMoko to decide how many
FreeRunner's they should manufacture in their first run *based on how many
people they think will buy a Freerunner in the first two months from launch*.

Rather than have a ridiculous number of answers in this thread we need someone
in the OpenMoko community to whip up a little webpage script which allows you 
to 

* enter your nick
* click yes/no if you will buy yourself
* enter your guess for no. sold in first two months
* press button to see results (min/max/ave/no.of votes/no.of intended 
purchasers)

Anyone offering to make the webpage?

JW


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